schema_version: 1 snapshot_date: '2026-09-12' source_commit: '2194432' manifest: wave_id: production-20260911-wave01 git_commit: 2194432d036bcc505b7ecfd8de166eb90956c6f2 created_at: '2026-09-11T16:59:25.791190+00:00' aggregate_hash: db04ac9fd1add0cc706b48e789fb6cc89e5eb8f668328635f8616d39a97e1cf8 config_hash: abb1b1d3a972e953a4bc828f7f096efb2d778cec0d3805c1b3c4a1f352df4c7e counts: cells: 36 staged_choice_calls: 10080 menus_per_pool: 140 menus_per_size_per_pool: 35 matched_keys: 24 paired_menus: 40 matched_subset_calls: 2880 planned_fits: 15 count_status: Cells and calls are observed in staged request files, not observed choices. Fifteen fits are planned, not fitted results. settings: pool_ids: - venture - hiring problems_per_family: venture: startup: 100 procurement: 40 hiring: candidates: 100 matched: 40 menu_sizes: - 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 num_presentations: 2 presentation_mode: reverse K: 3 seed: 42 max_choice_tokens: 64 max_assessment_tokens: 400 collection_mode: batch stan_model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored primary_utility_middle: 0.5 utility_middle_values: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.65 reference_model: gpt-4o reference_prompt: neutral budget: budget_ceiling_usd: 122.78 wave_reservation_usd: 122.7729167015873 reserved_total_usd: 0.0 models: - name: gpt-4o slug: gpt_4o vendor: openai tier: flagship endpoint: gpt-4o request_params: {} configured_temperature: 0.0 reasoning_token_reserve: 0 substituted_for: null - name: gpt-4o-mini slug: gpt_4o_mini vendor: openai tier: small endpoint: gpt-4o-mini request_params: {} configured_temperature: 0.0 reasoning_token_reserve: 0 substituted_for: null - name: o3-mini slug: o3_mini vendor: openai tier: reasoning endpoint: o3-mini request_params: reasoning_effort: medium configured_temperature: null reasoning_token_reserve: 2048 substituted_for: null - name: claude-sonnet-4-5 slug: claude_sonnet_4_5 vendor: anthropic tier: flagship endpoint: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 request_params: {} configured_temperature: 0.0 reasoning_token_reserve: 0 substituted_for: claude-sonnet-4-20250514 - name: claude-haiku-4-5 slug: claude_haiku_4_5 vendor: anthropic tier: small endpoint: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 request_params: {} configured_temperature: 0.0 reasoning_token_reserve: 0 substituted_for: claude-3-5-haiku-20241022 - name: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking slug: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking vendor: anthropic tier: reasoning endpoint: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 request_params: extended_thinking: true budget_tokens: 4096 configured_temperature: null reasoning_token_reserve: 0 substituted_for: claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219 cells: - cell_id: gpt_4o_neutral_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: ab617b277626f0b5acd49ef496342dd8e46c9db6b1c55d071970fb511943729c settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: b0d4403aeed60325b82d467071f7320e205e0b08e7ee3c176f63efbaf643ccb1 settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 89efec6b8e36bb6add3fb8949ef35e007d51b4ff50e84f927029121c4b629a96 settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_neutral_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: bf3a82b2d74d1646b04f21935b16252478b5c8a29aa9918a0d378c7f067ed8ae settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 700fc129eca96ad5c08bccd615585e5b891c69294aa7eacc7206635cc113bc33 settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 314225ebd3347486dada4a78e08684d2a8baf3df6580a734985823eae85361dc settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: o3_mini_neutral_venture pool: venture model: o3-mini prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 9313943394dbd878b9b2a1a2b84f6fa9003f14b062242cab9702b0074b773116 settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: o3_mini_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: o3-mini prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: be9cfd8c3584299aedb67b7eaf7fc50129c6a52680975852ae2783c6957d869e settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: o3_mini_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: o3-mini prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: ccc4859fe6f98e090b3023754ba3280091da90345ea669562aa6087fa5517051 settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_neutral_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: db37b00dd566dc9d27896dabb289aed94403a9cc1ced4da09ced652c1a0520ff settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: d9ce3df100eb192323d5b2cdbbe451c4e23b71870557d41b53f47f3718f724b2 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: fb6e9f33c17cb62f9bc0f2dbef95d57b50c8beb59a970375415e5b920bc143dc settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_neutral_venture pool: venture model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: edb72c5580a47972ac15b92dfca4a03622d8984978b79c92f3d60c7810ddb700 settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: b3b73852dd32b2290e962d51799743e1201b7d59aea43b8757af93d6d6e14744 settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 47e4c52489c2ffb8736ca8658e746961d6eaea6a1eab51a4966ebd62098f8572 settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_neutral_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: a8a844488cbf589c4653ea9133620c8f4752c38c4fe27e68f7144afbfb57a589 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_seu_maximizing_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: cf54d7f8e074ce13981466591151410c25df89c3031439dca230b88b93863294 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_deliberative_venture pool: venture model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 2922f030cda6ab4addc18fe373977cda8d1ca8bc115011fecad64e9c46275807 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 - cell_id: gpt_4o_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: fdb67cdc71e96f3661d42d585a69fd95afa6db3c100257487e1f6d523ccb1fe6 settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: dd7161d9625d4ec38bea674f96a1603fd56b844484df8881eac716f5ace236ce settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 2358d5ec1e444d7ae14fefded83e09bc28b6de9c8e228411171dd3a46cb56f84 settings: model: gpt-4o temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 716f2799844199977c8520e8a93c834932d7c4ad2602036a206be8fbc9f0f5df settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 25581c503bb32d1f06f165ef82030d58dccb8fc593b623f943b61180822fbddf settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: gpt_4o_mini_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: gpt-4o-mini prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: d96f6664bb72c2693df1e09d8d30af2f21262ed119552452127c59f5ff38bb17 settings: model: gpt-4o-mini temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: o3_mini_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: o3-mini prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 2b7bb267ee696ac08c3f92392929beefa84ad42822dfe0ab79f51016119d3df3 settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: o3_mini_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: o3-mini prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: a641261b39dcf247b3b36b6e94eb3a1d233d6ae54dd504c49e81eff1cb90b55b settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: o3_mini_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: o3-mini prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: a46f14f8090bde37a5285bfb3d9ef9e9c336796299cfcd2d1a510dc94087c941 settings: model: o3-mini max_completion_tokens: 2112 reasoning_effort: medium - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 3551877b0022a2db910e027671cbb674fbee4f3a6e82532411a490cae925cf20 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 13cbcf711dea91efa09e67c83c3d5df4c8744da852830dda10be3e1693a946b2 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5 prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 797155c47733e46352d91cbfcd54bf37319af084b5ddb6dc5bd8c16629ea3f14 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 29066a65727d19df2011477d39ca29de326c651f47f5597566a3b1262ea16bc6 settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 04bd92933d6e57908c925b8713d085cec9560ae9a5a34cfee7a24c94ad424104 settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_haiku_4_5_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-haiku-4-5 prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 831d9411648c189e34a41007c9bc66f405dbf287cae2bc40a40a1f21dec9b3ea settings: model: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 temperature: 0.0 max_tokens: 64 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_neutral_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: neutral request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: c43c44ee9a27ff0092b8d82dfbff8003a10a5deb43b78ffbac7a4bfa543aefee settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_seu_maximizing_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: seu_maximizing request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: 06df62c42a874ccb5f3a3aaf15fcbf56e788578f9663018538c843d109f57942 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 - cell_id: claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_deliberative_hiring pool: hiring model: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking prompt: deliberative request_count: 280 matched_request_count: 80 request_hash: fa355268e6aec7bad1d03815dcc48ffe64dd693e4ce4a9144731f90d2ef97ed6 settings: model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 temperature: 1.0 max_tokens: 4160 thinking: type: enabled budget_tokens: 4096 pools: venture: consequences: - 'Loss: the committed capital is not recovered' - 'Break-even: the commitment is recovered with no material gain' - 'High return: the commitment returns a substantial gain' items: - id: V001 family: startup text: 'Venture V001 -- health data infrastructure; seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V002 family: startup text: 'Venture V002 -- industrial software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V003 family: startup text: 'Venture V003 -- industrial software; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V004 family: startup text: 'Venture V004 -- climate hardware; seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V005 family: startup text: 'Venture V005 -- logistics software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V006 family: startup text: 'Venture V006 -- materials processing; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V007 family: startup text: 'Venture V007 -- climate hardware; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V008 family: startup text: 'Venture V008 -- logistics software; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V009 family: startup text: 'Venture V009 -- materials processing; seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V010 family: startup text: 'Venture V010 -- health data infrastructure; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: V011 family: startup text: 'Venture V011 -- industrial software; seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the product maturity as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V012 family: startup text: 'Venture V012 -- health data infrastructure; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V013 family: startup text: 'Venture V013 -- logistics software; seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: multi-year paid commitments across several customers. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the team record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V014 family: startup text: 'Venture V014 -- materials processing; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: well ahead of the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the demand evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V015 family: startup text: 'Venture V015 -- industrial software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the team record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V016 family: startup text: 'Venture V016 -- climate hardware; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has a sustained record of shipping comparable products successfully. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V017 family: startup text: 'Venture V017 -- materials processing; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the demand evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V018 family: startup text: 'Venture V018 -- health data infrastructure; seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the product maturity as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V019 family: startup text: 'Venture V019 -- climate hardware; seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production at scale with a documented roadmap and a defensible technical position. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V020 family: startup text: 'Venture V020 -- logistics software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: V021 family: startup text: 'Venture V021 -- materials processing; seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V022 family: startup text: 'Venture V022 -- health data infrastructure; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the unit economics as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V023 family: startup text: 'Venture V023 -- industrial software; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the product maturity as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V024 family: startup text: 'Venture V024 -- materials processing; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the team record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V025 family: startup text: 'Venture V025 -- health data infrastructure; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the team record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V026 family: startup text: 'Venture V026 -- industrial software; seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V027 family: startup text: 'Venture V027 -- climate hardware; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: close to the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the demand evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V028 family: startup text: 'Venture V028 -- logistics software; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the demand evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V029 family: startup text: 'Venture V029 -- materials processing; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: several paid pilots. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the team record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V030 family: startup text: 'Venture V030 -- health data infrastructure; seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product is in limited production with recurring reliability problems. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V031 family: startup text: 'Venture V031 -- industrial software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: positive at the contribution-margin level. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V032 family: startup text: 'Venture V032 -- climate hardware; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V033 family: startup text: 'Venture V033 -- logistics software; seed stage. Team record: founding team has shipped several comparable products successfully. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin. Noted reservation: the investment committee flagged the demand evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V034 family: startup text: 'Venture V034 -- climate hardware; seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: a small number of unpaid pilots. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V035 family: startup text: 'Venture V035 -- logistics software; Series A stage. Team record: founding team has shipped one comparable product, with mixed results. Traction: early usage reported, well below the plan filed at the last round. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative, with no credible path to contribution margin.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: V036 family: startup text: 'Venture V036 -- industrial software; pre-seed stage. Team record: founding team has no documented record of shipping a comparable product. Traction: no usage or revenue reported to date. Demand evidence: asserted but not evidenced by any signed customer. Product maturity: product exists only as a prototype with no production deployment. Unit economics: negative but improving on the reported cohort trend.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: P001 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P001 -- quality assurance services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK01 - id: P002 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P002 -- network operations services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK02 - id: P003 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P003 -- data platform services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK03 - id: P004 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P004 -- records management services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK04 - id: P005 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P005 -- quality assurance services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK05 - id: P006 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P006 -- logistics coordination services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK06 - id: P007 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P007 -- network operations services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the top band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK07 - id: P008 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P008 -- records management services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK08 - id: P009 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P009 -- logistics coordination services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK09 - id: P010 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P010 -- data platform services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK10 - id: P011 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P011 -- quality assurance services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: corroborated the claimed delivery history. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK11 - id: P012 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P012 -- network operations services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK12 - id: P013 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P013 -- logistics coordination services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK13 - id: P014 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P014 -- data platform services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the reference evidence as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK14 - id: P015 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P015 -- records management services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK15 - id: P016 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P016 -- records management services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK16 - id: P017 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P017 -- network operations services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK17 - id: P018 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P018 -- quality assurance services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the review board score as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK18 - id: P019 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P019 -- quality assurance services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Past-client references: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK19 - id: P020 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P020 -- logistics coordination services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK20 - id: P021 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P021 -- data platform services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior contract delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK21 - id: P022 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P022 -- records management services; 5-8 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK22 - id: P023 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P023 -- network operations services; 9+ years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires. Noted reservation: evaluators flagged the technical proposal as the weakest part of the bid.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK23 - id: P024 family: procurement text: 'Vendor P024 -- data platform services; 2-4 years operating in this service category. Technical proposal: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior contract delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior contracts. Technical review board: scored the bid in the bottom band of the rubric. Past-client references: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK24 menus: - id: VEN0018 family: startup item_ids: - V012 - V015 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V012 - V015 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V015 - V012 - id: VEN0032 family: startup item_ids: - V009 - V011 - V032 - V024 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V009 - V011 - V032 - V024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V024 - V032 - V011 - V009 - id: VEN0003 family: startup item_ids: - V019 - V002 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V019 - V002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V002 - V019 - id: VEN0001 family: startup item_ids: - V002 - V011 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V002 - V011 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V011 - V002 - id: VEN0070 family: startup item_ids: - V013 - V036 - V029 - V016 - V021 - V033 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V013 - V036 - V029 - V016 - V021 - V033 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V033 - V021 - V016 - V029 - V036 - V013 - id: VEN0093 family: startup item_ids: - V032 - V026 - V033 - V031 - V021 - V018 - V012 - V030 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V032 - V026 - V033 - V031 - V021 - V018 - V012 - V030 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V030 - V012 - V018 - V021 - V031 - V033 - V026 - V032 - id: VEN0126 family: procurement item_ids: - P015 - P023 - P014 - P002 - P019 - P001 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P015 - P023 - P014 - P002 - P019 - P001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P001 - P019 - P002 - P014 - P023 - P015 - id: VEN0033 family: startup item_ids: - V034 - V015 - V002 - V023 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V034 - V015 - V002 - V023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V023 - V002 - V015 - V034 - id: VEN0107 family: procurement item_ids: - P004 - P006 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P004 - P006 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P006 - P004 - id: VEN0119 family: procurement item_ids: - P009 - P012 - P013 - P017 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P009 - P012 - P013 - P017 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P017 - P013 - P012 - P009 - id: VEN0041 family: startup item_ids: - V022 - V003 - V025 - V001 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V022 - V003 - V025 - V001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V001 - V025 - V003 - V022 - id: VEN0136 family: procurement item_ids: - P001 - P014 - P018 - P004 - P021 - P022 - P016 - P023 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P001 - P014 - P018 - P004 - P021 - P022 - P016 - P023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P023 - P016 - P022 - P021 - P004 - P018 - P014 - P001 - id: VEN0117 family: procurement item_ids: - P020 - P004 - P022 - P002 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P020 - P004 - P022 - P002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P002 - P022 - P004 - P020 - id: VEN0077 family: startup item_ids: - V023 - V033 - V030 - V028 - V018 - V005 - V026 - V025 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V023 - V033 - V030 - V028 - V018 - V005 - V026 - V025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V025 - V026 - V005 - V018 - V028 - V030 - V033 - V023 - id: VEN0105 family: procurement item_ids: - P002 - P004 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P002 - P004 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P004 - P002 - id: VEN0016 family: startup item_ids: - V006 - V010 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V006 - V010 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V010 - V006 - id: VEN0048 family: startup item_ids: - V026 - V012 - V015 - V028 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V026 - V012 - V015 - V028 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V028 - V015 - V012 - V026 - id: VEN0122 family: procurement item_ids: - P022 - P013 - P002 - P021 - P010 - P019 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P022 - P013 - P002 - P021 - P010 - P019 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P019 - P010 - P021 - P002 - P013 - P022 - id: VEN0091 family: startup item_ids: - V004 - V032 - V022 - V027 - V024 - V035 - V002 - V026 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - V004 - V032 - V022 - V027 - V024 - V035 - V002 - V026 - presentation_id: 2 order: - V026 - V002 - V035 - V024 - V027 - V022 - V032 - V004 - id: VEN0103 family: procurement item_ids: - P004 - P009 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - P004 - P009 - presentation_id: 2 order: - P009 - P004 - id: VEN0104 family: procurement item_ids: - 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0.15 - 0.77 P005: - 0.08 - 0.35 - 0.57 P006: - 0.08 - 0.68 - 0.24 P007: - 0.15 - 0.35 - 0.5 P008: - 0.15 - 0.6 - 0.25 P009: - 0.25 - 0.5 - 0.25 P010: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 P011: - 0.25 - 0.5 - 0.25 P012: - 0.25 - 0.5 - 0.25 P013: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 P014: - 0.25 - 0.5 - 0.25 P015: - 0.35 - 0.4 - 0.25 P016: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 P017: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 P018: - 0.4 - 0.45 - 0.15 P019: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 P020: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 P021: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 P022: - 0.6 - 0.35 - 0.05 P023: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 P024: - 0.75 - 0.2 - 0.05 claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking: V001: - 0.25 - 0.15 - 0.6 V002: - 0.15 - 0.25 - 0.6 V003: - 0.25 - 0.1 - 0.65 V004: - 0.3 - 0.15 - 0.55 V005: - 0.25 - 0.15 - 0.6 V006: - 0.25 - 0.15 - 0.6 V007: - 0.15 - 0.25 - 0.6 V008: - 0.35 - 0.1 - 0.55 V009: - 0.4 - 0.2 - 0.4 V010: - 0.25 - 0.2 - 0.55 V011: - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.7 V012: - 0.55 - 0.1 - 0.35 V013: - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.35000000000000003 - 0.35000000000000003 V014: - 0.7 - 0.12 - 0.18 V015: - 0.55 - 0.15 - 0.3 V016: - 0.5 - 0.15 - 0.35 V017: - 0.45 - 0.2 - 0.35 V018: - 0.42 - 0.23 - 0.35 V019: - 0.68 - 0.05 - 0.27 V020: - 0.6 - 0.28 - 0.12 V021: - 0.65 - 0.15 - 0.2 V022: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 V023: - 0.55 - 0.15 - 0.3 V024: - 0.7 - 0.1 - 0.2 V025: - 0.67 - 0.18 - 0.15 V026: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 V027: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 V028: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 V029: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 V030: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 V031: - 0.65 - 0.1 - 0.25 V032: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 V033: - 0.65 - 0.08 - 0.27 V034: - 0.8 - 0.07 - 0.13 V035: - 0.75 - 0.18 - 0.07 V036: - 0.75 - 0.05 - 0.2 P001: - 0.05 - 0.15 - 0.8 P002: - 0.05 - 0.2 - 0.75 P003: - 0.05 - 0.15 - 0.8 P004: - 0.1 - 0.25 - 0.65 P005: - 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.6 P006: - 0.08 - 0.22 - 0.7 P007: - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.10000000000000002 P008: - 0.15 - 0.3 - 0.55 P009: - 0.15 - 0.6 - 0.25 P010: - 0.45 - 0.45 - 0.1 P011: - 0.25 - 0.65 - 0.1 P012: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 P013: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 P014: - 0.2 - 0.55 - 0.25 P015: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 P016: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 P017: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 P018: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 P019: - 0.6 - 0.35 - 0.05 P020: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 P021: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 P022: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 P023: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 P024: - 0.75 - 0.2 - 0.05 assessment_instruction: neutral gate: schema_version: '1.0' pool_id: venture n_items: 60 n_menus: 140 design_seed: 42 thresholds: pc1_auc_strong_vs_weak: 0.75 pc1_spearman_vs_merit: 0.35 r0_pool: 0.3 r0_model_pool: 0.2 eta_gap_max_cross_pool_diff: 0.25 eta_gap_max_cross_size_diff: 0.25 max_assessment_parse_failure: 0.05 r3_dim: 8 r3_ridge_alpha: 1.0 lda_dim: 8 lda_shrinkage: 0.001 min_items_for_check: 12 eta_gap_axis: embedding provisional: false frozen_at: '2026-09-06' provisional_thresholds: false checks: quality_axis: n_items: 60 merit_source: merit_total label_counts: strong: 16 ambiguous: 16 weak: 28 pc1: auc_strong_vs_weak: 0.433 spearman_vs_merit: -0.1143 meets_threshold: false axis: lda status: ok passed: true lda: dim: 8 loo_auc_strong_vs_weak: 1.0 loo_spearman_vs_merit: 0.8052 meets_threshold: true note: PC1 did not separate the authored labels; the plan's label-supervised fallback is in use as the quality proxy (§6.3 R4) eta_gap: overall: n: 140 mean: 0.7077 sd: 0.6143 by_size: '2': n: 35 mean: 0.6569 sd: 0.6071 '4': n: 35 mean: 0.692 sd: 0.6225 '6': n: 35 mean: 0.7475 sd: 0.6331 '8': n: 35 mean: 0.7343 sd: 0.6169 by_family_size: procurement/2: n: 10 mean: 0.6114 sd: 0.5896 procurement/4: n: 10 mean: 0.8994 sd: 0.7085 procurement/6: n: 10 mean: 0.94 sd: 0.6077 procurement/8: n: 10 mean: 0.8451 sd: 0.6011 startup/2: n: 25 mean: 0.6751 sd: 0.6249 startup/4: n: 25 mean: 0.609 sd: 0.5794 startup/6: n: 25 mean: 0.6706 sd: 0.6385 startup/8: n: 25 mean: 0.69 sd: 0.6297 by_stratum: ambiguous: n: 44 mean: 0.1537 sd: 0.1061 strong: n: 52 mean: 1.3683 sd: 0.4013 weak: n: 44 mean: 0.481 sd: 0.3509 cross_size: pairwise_abs_diff: 2_vs_4: 0.0351 2_vs_6: 0.0906 2_vs_8: 0.0774 4_vs_6: 0.0555 4_vs_8: 0.0423 6_vs_8: 0.0132 worst: 0.0906 threshold: 0.25 passed: true pairwise_abs_cohens_d: 2_vs_4: 0.057 2_vs_6: 0.1461 2_vs_8: 0.1265 4_vs_6: 0.0885 4_vs_8: 0.0683 6_vs_8: 0.0211 units: pool-standardized quality-score units; Cohen's d is reported alongside as a diagnostic and is not the pass rule cross_pool: status: evaluated pools_compared: - hiring pairwise_abs_diff: hiring: 0.0601 worst: 0.0601 threshold: 0.25 passed: true passed: true status: ok predictive_validity: status: ok passed: true pooled: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8611 - 0.7852 r2: 0.8232 threshold_pool: 0.3 by_model: claude_haiku_4_5: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7873 - 0.6393 r2: 0.7133 claude_sonnet_4_5: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7731 - 0.6561 r2: 0.7146 claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.6104 - 0.437 r2: 0.5237 gpt_4o: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8447 - 0.7971 r2: 0.8209 gpt_4o_mini: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8976 - 0.7404 r2: 0.819 o3_mini: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8665 - 0.6837 r2: 0.7751 threshold_model_pool: 0.2 model_meets_threshold: claude_haiku_4_5: true claude_sonnet_4_5: true claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: true gpt_4o: true gpt_4o_mini: true o3_mini: true by_menu_size: '2': status: ok n: 27 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.4995 - 0.3877 r2: 0.4436 '4': status: ok n: 53 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8355 - 0.7726 r2: 0.804 '6': status: ok n: 58 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8645 - 0.7982 r2: 0.8313 '8': status: ok n: 58 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.8574 - 0.7826 r2: 0.82 note: pooled R^2 blocks; the per-model x pool matrix is the §9.2 differential-mis-measurement diagnostic and reports only (§5) assessment_parse: status: ok passed: true failure_rate_by_model: claude_haiku_4_5: 0.0 claude_sonnet_4_5: 0.0 claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: 0.0 gpt_4o: 0.0 gpt_4o_mini: 0.0 o3_mini: 0.0 worst: 0.0 threshold: 0.05 quality_axis: lda diagnostics: belief_quality_axis: status: ok axis: belief n_items: 60 n_models: 6 auc_strong_vs_weak: 1.0 spearman_vs_label_ordinal: 0.8965 meets_threshold: true mean_by_label: strong: 1.5362 ambiguous: 0.8984 weak: 0.5284 note: diagnostic; does not decide the gate unless eta_gap_axis='belief' eta_gap_alternative_axis: axis: belief overall: n: 140 mean: 0.7215 sd: 0.6585 by_size: '2': n: 35 mean: 0.7048 sd: 0.679 '4': n: 35 mean: 0.698 sd: 0.6529 '6': n: 35 mean: 0.7595 sd: 0.7309 '8': n: 35 mean: 0.7236 sd: 0.5907 worst_cross_size_diff: null would_pass: true note: diagnostic; not part of the pass/fail decision eta_gap_axis: embedding failed_checks: [] passed: true status: passed hiring: consequences: - 'Underperforms: falls short of what the role requires' - 'Meets expectations: performs at the level the role requires' - 'Exceeds expectations: performs well above the level the role requires' items: - id: H001 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H001 -- logistics coordination; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H002 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H002 -- data platform engineering; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H003 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H003 -- data platform engineering; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H004 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H004 -- records management; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H005 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H005 -- network operations; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H006 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H006 -- quality assurance; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H007 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H007 -- records management; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H008 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H008 -- network operations; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H009 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H009 -- quality assurance; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H010 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H010 -- logistics coordination; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: null - id: H011 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H011 -- data platform engineering; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the reference evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H012 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H012 -- logistics coordination; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H013 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H013 -- network operations; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H014 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H014 -- quality assurance; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H015 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H015 -- data platform engineering; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H016 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H016 -- records management; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H017 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H017 -- quality assurance; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H018 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H018 -- logistics coordination; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the reference evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H019 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H019 -- records management; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H020 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H020 -- network operations; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: null - id: H021 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H021 -- quality assurance; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H022 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H022 -- logistics coordination; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H023 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H023 -- data platform engineering; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the reference evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H024 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H024 -- quality assurance; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H025 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H025 -- logistics coordination; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H026 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H026 -- data platform engineering; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H027 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H027 -- records management; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H028 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H028 -- network operations; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H029 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H029 -- quality assurance; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H030 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H030 -- logistics coordination; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H031 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H031 -- data platform engineering; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H032 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H032 -- records management; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H033 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H033 -- network operations; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H034 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H034 -- records management; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H035 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H035 -- network operations; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H036 family: candidates text: 'Candidate H036 -- data platform engineering; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: null - id: H101 family: matched text: 'Candidate H101 -- quality assurance; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK01 - id: H102 family: matched text: 'Candidate H102 -- network operations; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK02 - id: H103 family: matched text: 'Candidate H103 -- data platform engineering; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK03 - id: H104 family: matched text: 'Candidate H104 -- records management; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK04 - id: H105 family: matched text: 'Candidate H105 -- quality assurance; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions in specific detail and were uniformly positive. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK05 - id: H106 family: matched text: 'Candidate H106 -- logistics coordination; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: strong matched_key: MK06 - id: H107 family: matched text: 'Candidate H107 -- network operations; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the top band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK07 - id: H108 family: matched text: 'Candidate H108 -- records management; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK08 - id: H109 family: matched text: 'Candidate H109 -- logistics coordination; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK09 - id: H110 family: matched text: 'Candidate H110 -- data platform engineering; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on a sustained series of comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK10 - id: H111 family: matched text: 'Candidate H111 -- quality assurance; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK11 - id: H112 family: matched text: 'Candidate H112 -- network operations; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: ambiguous matched_key: MK12 - id: H113 family: matched text: 'Candidate H113 -- logistics coordination; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK13 - id: H114 family: matched text: 'Candidate H114 -- data platform engineering; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers most of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the reference evidence as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK14 - id: H115 family: matched text: 'Candidate H115 -- records management; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK15 - id: H116 family: matched text: 'Candidate H116 -- records management; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK16 - id: H117 family: matched text: 'Candidate H117 -- network operations; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK17 - id: H118 family: matched text: 'Candidate H118 -- quality assurance; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers some of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the panel score as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK18 - id: H119 family: matched text: 'Candidate H119 -- quality assurance; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK19 - id: H120 family: matched text: 'Candidate H120 -- logistics coordination; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: met the basic requirements but showed several correctness and clarity problems. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK20 - id: H121 family: matched text: 'Candidate H121 -- data platform engineering; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK21 - id: H122 family: matched text: 'Candidate H122 -- records management; 5-8 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: returned brief, non-specific responses. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK22 - id: H123 family: matched text: 'Candidate H123 -- network operations; 9+ years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: documented successful outcomes on several comparable prior projects. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires. Noted reservation: reviewers flagged the work sample as the weakest part of the file.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK23 - id: H124 family: matched text: 'Candidate H124 -- data platform engineering; 2-4 years of experience in this function. Work sample: incomplete; did not meet the stated requirements. Prior delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work. Structured interview panel: scored the file in the bottom band of the rubric. Reference checks: could not be completed. Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires.' quality_label: weak matched_key: MK24 menus: - id: HIR0018 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H015 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H015 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H015 - H012 - id: HIR0032 family: candidates item_ids: - H009 - H011 - H032 - H024 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H009 - H011 - H032 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H032 - H011 - H009 - id: HIR0003 family: candidates item_ids: - H019 - H002 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H019 - H002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H002 - H019 - id: HIR0001 family: candidates item_ids: - H002 - H011 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H002 - H011 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H011 - H002 - id: HIR0070 family: candidates item_ids: - H013 - H036 - H029 - H016 - H021 - H033 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H013 - H036 - H029 - H016 - H021 - H033 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H033 - H021 - H016 - H029 - H036 - H013 - id: HIR0093 family: candidates item_ids: - H032 - H026 - H033 - H031 - H021 - H018 - H012 - H030 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H032 - H026 - H033 - H031 - H021 - H018 - H012 - H030 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H030 - H012 - H018 - H021 - H031 - H033 - H026 - H032 - id: HIR0126 family: matched item_ids: - H115 - H123 - H114 - H102 - H119 - H101 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H115 - H123 - H114 - H102 - H119 - H101 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H101 - H119 - H102 - H114 - H123 - H115 - id: HIR0033 family: candidates item_ids: - H034 - H015 - H002 - H023 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H034 - H015 - H002 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H002 - H015 - H034 - id: HIR0107 family: matched item_ids: - H104 - H106 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H104 - H106 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H106 - H104 - id: HIR0119 family: matched item_ids: - H109 - H112 - H113 - H117 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H109 - H112 - H113 - H117 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H117 - H113 - H112 - H109 - id: HIR0041 family: candidates item_ids: - H022 - H003 - H025 - H001 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H022 - H003 - H025 - H001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H001 - H025 - H003 - H022 - id: HIR0136 family: matched item_ids: - H101 - H114 - H118 - H104 - H121 - H122 - H116 - H123 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H101 - H114 - H118 - H104 - H121 - H122 - H116 - H123 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H123 - H116 - H122 - H121 - H104 - H118 - H114 - H101 - id: HIR0117 family: matched item_ids: - H120 - H104 - H122 - H102 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H120 - H104 - H122 - H102 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H102 - H122 - H104 - H120 - id: HIR0077 family: candidates item_ids: - H023 - H033 - H030 - H028 - H018 - H005 - H026 - H025 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H023 - H033 - H030 - H028 - H018 - H005 - H026 - H025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H025 - H026 - H005 - H018 - H028 - H030 - H033 - H023 - id: HIR0105 family: matched item_ids: - H102 - H104 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H102 - H104 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H104 - H102 - id: HIR0016 family: candidates item_ids: - H006 - H010 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H006 - H010 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H010 - H006 - id: HIR0048 family: candidates item_ids: - H026 - H012 - H015 - H028 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H026 - H012 - H015 - H028 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H028 - H015 - H012 - H026 - id: HIR0122 family: matched item_ids: - H122 - H113 - H102 - H121 - H110 - H119 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H122 - H113 - H102 - H121 - H110 - H119 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H119 - H110 - H121 - H102 - H113 - H122 - id: HIR0091 family: candidates item_ids: - H004 - H032 - H022 - H027 - H024 - H035 - H002 - H026 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H004 - H032 - H022 - H027 - H024 - H035 - H002 - H026 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H026 - H002 - H035 - H024 - H027 - H022 - H032 - H004 - id: HIR0103 family: matched item_ids: - H104 - H109 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H104 - H109 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H109 - H104 - id: HIR0104 family: matched item_ids: - H109 - H103 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H109 - H103 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H103 - H109 - id: HIR0012 family: candidates item_ids: - H008 - H002 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H008 - H002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H002 - H008 - id: HIR0108 family: matched item_ids: - H110 - H107 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H110 - H107 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H107 - H110 - id: HIR0020 family: candidates item_ids: - H016 - H018 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H016 - H018 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H018 - H016 - id: HIR0051 family: candidates item_ids: - H034 - H014 - H031 - H030 - H022 - H005 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H034 - H014 - H031 - H030 - H022 - H005 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H005 - H022 - H030 - H031 - H014 - H034 - id: HIR0002 family: candidates item_ids: - H014 - H004 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H014 - H004 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H004 - H014 - id: HIR0086 family: candidates item_ids: - H008 - H023 - H026 - H034 - H032 - H029 - H002 - H036 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H008 - H023 - H026 - H034 - H032 - H029 - H002 - H036 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H036 - H002 - H029 - H032 - H034 - H026 - H023 - H008 - id: HIR0131 family: matched item_ids: - H123 - H108 - H113 - H117 - H118 - H101 - H119 - H120 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H123 - H108 - H113 - H117 - H118 - H101 - H119 - H120 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H120 - H119 - H101 - H118 - H117 - H113 - H108 - H123 - id: HIR0025 family: candidates item_ids: - H019 - H014 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H019 - H014 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H014 - H019 - id: HIR0035 family: candidates item_ids: - H030 - H007 - H026 - H003 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H030 - H007 - H026 - H003 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H003 - H026 - H007 - H030 - id: HIR0050 family: candidates item_ids: - H015 - H034 - H018 - H032 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H015 - H034 - H018 - H032 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H032 - H018 - H034 - H015 - id: HIR0127 family: matched item_ids: - H115 - H101 - H118 - H119 - H121 - H104 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H115 - H101 - H118 - H119 - H121 - H104 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H104 - H121 - H119 - H118 - H101 - H115 - id: HIR0060 family: candidates item_ids: - H025 - H002 - H030 - H003 - H028 - H021 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H025 - H002 - H030 - H003 - H028 - H021 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H021 - H028 - H003 - H030 - H002 - H025 - id: HIR0097 family: candidates item_ids: - H021 - H028 - H025 - H036 - H019 - H026 - H017 - H029 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H021 - H028 - H025 - H036 - H019 - H026 - H017 - H029 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H029 - H017 - H026 - H019 - H036 - H025 - H028 - H021 - id: HIR0022 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H015 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H015 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H015 - H012 - id: HIR0037 family: candidates item_ids: - H005 - H023 - H001 - H022 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H005 - H023 - H001 - H022 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H022 - H001 - H023 - H005 - id: HIR0040 family: candidates item_ids: - H021 - H004 - H031 - H002 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H021 - H004 - H031 - H002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H002 - H031 - H004 - H021 - id: HIR0081 family: candidates item_ids: - H003 - H027 - H018 - H030 - H021 - H029 - H026 - H025 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H003 - H027 - H018 - H030 - H021 - H029 - H026 - H025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H025 - H026 - H029 - H021 - H030 - H018 - H027 - H003 - id: HIR0098 family: candidates item_ids: - H032 - H022 - H024 - H026 - H023 - H028 - H012 - H017 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H032 - H022 - H024 - H026 - H023 - H028 - H012 - H017 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H017 - H012 - H028 - H023 - H026 - H024 - H022 - H032 - id: HIR0082 family: candidates item_ids: - H026 - H021 - H033 - H030 - H002 - H022 - H028 - H018 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H026 - H021 - H033 - H030 - H002 - H022 - H028 - H018 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H018 - H028 - H022 - H002 - H030 - H033 - H021 - H026 - id: HIR0084 family: candidates item_ids: - H021 - H036 - H024 - H003 - H015 - H027 - H031 - H034 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H021 - H036 - H024 - H003 - H015 - H027 - H031 - H034 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H034 - H031 - H027 - H015 - H003 - H024 - H036 - H021 - id: HIR0123 family: matched item_ids: - H111 - H115 - H118 - H105 - H114 - H122 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H111 - H115 - H118 - H105 - H114 - H122 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H122 - H114 - H105 - H118 - H115 - H111 - id: HIR0102 family: matched item_ids: - H110 - H106 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H110 - H106 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H106 - H110 - id: HIR0112 family: matched item_ids: - H123 - H110 - H120 - H105 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H123 - H110 - H120 - H105 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H105 - H120 - H110 - H123 - id: HIR0046 family: candidates item_ids: - H035 - H015 - H014 - H023 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H035 - H015 - H014 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H014 - H015 - H035 - id: HIR0074 family: candidates item_ids: - H025 - H024 - H013 - H034 - H028 - H011 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H025 - H024 - H013 - H034 - H028 - H011 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H011 - H028 - H034 - H013 - H024 - H025 - id: HIR0106 family: matched item_ids: - H106 - H104 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H106 - H104 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H104 - H106 - id: HIR0128 family: matched item_ids: - H114 - H117 - H108 - H109 - H120 - H123 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H114 - H117 - H108 - H109 - H120 - H123 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H123 - H120 - H109 - H108 - H117 - H114 - id: HIR0031 family: candidates item_ids: - H010 - H012 - H033 - H027 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H010 - H012 - H033 - H027 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H027 - H033 - H012 - H010 - id: HIR0064 family: candidates item_ids: - H024 - H025 - H007 - H001 - H030 - H036 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H024 - H025 - H007 - H001 - H030 - H036 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H036 - H030 - H001 - H007 - H025 - H024 - id: HIR0089 family: candidates item_ids: - H024 - H005 - H030 - H034 - H036 - H002 - H028 - H031 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H024 - H005 - H030 - H034 - H036 - H002 - H028 - H031 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H031 - H028 - H002 - H036 - H034 - H030 - H005 - H024 - id: HIR0024 family: candidates item_ids: - H018 - H017 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H018 - H017 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H017 - H018 - id: HIR0099 family: candidates item_ids: - H031 - H032 - H029 - H033 - H025 - H018 - H030 - H015 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H031 - H032 - H029 - H033 - H025 - H018 - H030 - H015 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H015 - H030 - H018 - H025 - H033 - H029 - H032 - H031 - id: HIR0043 family: candidates item_ids: - H028 - H020 - H018 - H034 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H028 - H020 - H018 - H034 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H034 - H018 - H020 - H028 - id: HIR0090 family: candidates item_ids: - H004 - H030 - H006 - H026 - H028 - H029 - H032 - H031 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H004 - H030 - H006 - H026 - H028 - H029 - H032 - H031 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H031 - H032 - H029 - H028 - H026 - H006 - H030 - H004 - id: HIR0069 family: candidates item_ids: - H017 - H025 - H033 - H032 - H030 - H016 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H017 - H025 - H033 - H032 - H030 - H016 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H016 - H030 - H032 - H033 - H025 - H017 - id: HIR0021 family: candidates item_ids: - H017 - H016 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H017 - H016 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H016 - H017 - id: HIR0125 family: matched item_ids: - H119 - H106 - H118 - H124 - H122 - H103 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H119 - H106 - H118 - H124 - H122 - H103 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H103 - H122 - H124 - H118 - H106 - H119 - id: HIR0114 family: matched item_ids: - H111 - H106 - H115 - H116 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H111 - H106 - H115 - H116 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H116 - H115 - H106 - H111 - id: HIR0027 family: candidates item_ids: - H002 - H031 - H014 - H024 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H002 - H031 - H014 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H014 - H031 - H002 - id: HIR0026 family: candidates item_ids: - H001 - H034 - H014 - H022 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H001 - H034 - H014 - H022 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H022 - H014 - H034 - H001 - id: HIR0113 family: matched item_ids: - H108 - H117 - H105 - H121 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H108 - H117 - H105 - H121 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H121 - H105 - H117 - H108 - id: HIR0073 family: candidates item_ids: - H035 - H020 - H031 - H032 - H027 - H012 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H035 - H020 - H031 - H032 - H027 - H012 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H012 - H027 - H032 - H031 - H020 - H035 - id: HIR0044 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H034 - H013 - H026 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H034 - H013 - H026 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H026 - H013 - H034 - H012 - id: HIR0053 family: candidates item_ids: - H021 - H012 - H028 - H031 - H007 - H032 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H021 - H012 - H028 - H031 - H007 - H032 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H032 - H007 - H031 - H028 - H012 - H021 - id: HIR0030 family: candidates item_ids: - H002 - H023 - H024 - H011 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H002 - H023 - H024 - H011 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H011 - H024 - H023 - H002 - id: HIR0110 family: matched item_ids: - H112 - H110 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H112 - H110 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H110 - H112 - id: HIR0072 family: candidates item_ids: - H030 - H025 - H024 - H035 - H012 - H015 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H030 - H025 - H024 - H035 - H012 - H015 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H015 - H012 - H035 - H024 - H025 - H030 - id: HIR0028 family: candidates item_ids: - H003 - H015 - H024 - H025 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H003 - H015 - H024 - H025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H025 - H024 - H015 - H003 - id: HIR0120 family: matched item_ids: - H111 - H123 - H120 - H112 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H111 - H123 - H120 - H112 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H112 - H120 - H123 - H111 - id: HIR0013 family: candidates item_ids: - H006 - H007 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H006 - H007 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H007 - H006 - id: HIR0056 family: candidates item_ids: - H023 - H016 - H029 - H004 - H030 - H032 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H023 - H016 - H029 - H004 - H030 - H032 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H032 - H030 - H004 - H029 - H016 - H023 - id: HIR0109 family: matched item_ids: - H110 - H109 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H110 - H109 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H109 - H110 - id: HIR0115 family: matched item_ids: - H114 - H117 - H104 - H105 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H114 - H117 - H104 - H105 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H105 - H104 - H117 - H114 - id: HIR0139 family: matched item_ids: - H113 - H118 - H121 - H109 - H122 - H116 - H112 - H124 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H113 - H118 - H121 - H109 - H122 - H116 - H112 - H124 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H124 - H112 - H116 - H122 - H109 - H121 - H118 - H113 - id: HIR0121 family: matched item_ids: - H103 - H122 - H123 - H119 - H109 - H121 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H103 - H122 - H123 - H119 - H109 - H121 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H121 - H109 - H119 - H123 - H122 - H103 - id: HIR0049 family: candidates item_ids: - H028 - H026 - H011 - H017 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H028 - H026 - H011 - H017 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H017 - H011 - H026 - H028 - id: HIR0087 family: candidates item_ids: - H029 - H008 - H022 - H024 - H036 - H026 - H007 - H028 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H029 - H008 - H022 - H024 - H036 - H026 - H007 - H028 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H028 - H007 - H026 - H036 - H024 - H022 - H008 - H029 - id: HIR0140 family: matched item_ids: - H114 - H123 - H107 - H116 - H118 - H110 - H124 - H115 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H114 - H123 - H107 - H116 - H118 - H110 - H124 - H115 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H115 - H124 - H110 - H118 - H116 - H107 - H123 - H114 - id: HIR0075 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H034 - H019 - H025 - H033 - H029 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H034 - H019 - H025 - H033 - H029 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H029 - H033 - H025 - H019 - H034 - H012 - id: HIR0080 family: candidates item_ids: - H033 - H016 - H024 - H035 - H029 - H023 - H032 - H007 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H033 - H016 - H024 - H035 - H029 - H023 - H032 - H007 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H007 - H032 - H023 - H029 - H035 - H024 - H016 - H033 - id: HIR0036 family: candidates item_ids: - H036 - H008 - H001 - H024 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H036 - H008 - H001 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H001 - H008 - H036 - id: HIR0124 family: matched item_ids: - H112 - H104 - H119 - H114 - H122 - H115 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H112 - H104 - H119 - H114 - H122 - H115 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H115 - H122 - H114 - H119 - H104 - H112 - id: HIR0118 family: matched item_ids: - H115 - H124 - H112 - H111 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H115 - H124 - H112 - H111 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H111 - H112 - H124 - H115 - id: HIR0019 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H018 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H018 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H018 - H012 - id: HIR0078 family: candidates item_ids: - H027 - H032 - H023 - H029 - H028 - H014 - H003 - H033 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H027 - H032 - H023 - H029 - H028 - H014 - H003 - H033 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H033 - H003 - H014 - H028 - H029 - H023 - H032 - H027 - id: HIR0042 family: candidates item_ids: - H010 - H028 - H002 - H025 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H010 - H028 - H002 - H025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H025 - H002 - H028 - H010 - id: HIR0011 family: candidates item_ids: - H007 - H004 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H007 - H004 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H004 - H007 - id: HIR0010 family: candidates item_ids: - H005 - H006 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H005 - H006 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H006 - H005 - id: HIR0057 family: candidates item_ids: - H022 - H002 - H035 - H029 - H013 - H023 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H022 - H002 - H035 - H029 - H013 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H013 - H029 - H035 - H002 - H022 - id: HIR0063 family: candidates item_ids: - H033 - H003 - H031 - H035 - H034 - H007 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H033 - H003 - H031 - H035 - H034 - H007 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H007 - H034 - H035 - H031 - H003 - H033 - id: HIR0111 family: matched item_ids: - H120 - H111 - H119 - H106 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H120 - H111 - H119 - H106 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H106 - H119 - H111 - H120 - id: HIR0088 family: candidates item_ids: - H006 - H029 - H027 - H008 - H026 - H028 - H031 - H024 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H006 - H029 - H027 - H008 - H026 - H028 - H031 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H031 - H028 - H026 - H008 - H027 - H029 - H006 - id: HIR0055 family: candidates item_ids: - H026 - H001 - H022 - H018 - H024 - H031 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H026 - H001 - H022 - H018 - H024 - H031 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H031 - H024 - H018 - H022 - H001 - H026 - id: HIR0052 family: candidates item_ids: - H023 - H021 - H026 - H031 - H009 - H019 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H023 - H021 - H026 - H031 - H009 - H019 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H019 - H009 - H031 - H026 - H021 - H023 - id: HIR0062 family: candidates item_ids: - H034 - H006 - H030 - H033 - H023 - H010 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H034 - H006 - H030 - H033 - H023 - H010 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H010 - H023 - H033 - H030 - H006 - H034 - id: HIR0008 family: candidates item_ids: - H004 - H018 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H004 - H018 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H018 - H004 - id: HIR0132 family: matched item_ids: - H118 - H116 - H108 - H123 - H120 - H103 - H117 - H122 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H118 - H116 - H108 - H123 - H120 - H103 - H117 - H122 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H122 - H117 - H103 - H120 - H123 - H108 - H116 - H118 - id: HIR0129 family: matched item_ids: - H123 - H117 - H112 - H109 - H113 - H120 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H123 - H117 - H112 - H109 - H113 - H120 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H120 - H113 - H109 - H112 - H117 - H123 - id: HIR0059 family: candidates item_ids: - H016 - H001 - H025 - H026 - H032 - H023 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H016 - H001 - H025 - H026 - H032 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H032 - H026 - H025 - H001 - H016 - id: HIR0039 family: candidates item_ids: - H008 - H032 - H005 - H028 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H008 - H032 - H005 - H028 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H028 - H005 - H032 - H008 - id: HIR0067 family: candidates item_ids: - H010 - H025 - H032 - H028 - H007 - H024 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H010 - H025 - H032 - H028 - H007 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H007 - H028 - H032 - H025 - H010 - id: HIR0085 family: candidates item_ids: - H034 - H006 - H031 - H028 - H002 - H024 - H036 - H021 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H034 - H006 - H031 - H028 - H002 - H024 - H036 - H021 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H021 - H036 - H024 - H002 - H028 - H031 - H006 - H034 - id: HIR0101 family: matched item_ids: - H103 - H108 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H103 - H108 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H108 - H103 - id: HIR0094 family: candidates item_ids: - H019 - H034 - H031 - H017 - H025 - H033 - H021 - H023 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H019 - H034 - H031 - H017 - H025 - H033 - H021 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H021 - H033 - H025 - H017 - H031 - H034 - H019 - id: HIR0006 family: candidates item_ids: - H019 - H004 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H019 - H004 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H004 - H019 - id: HIR0079 family: candidates item_ids: - H027 - H010 - H026 - H030 - H036 - H017 - H031 - H021 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H027 - H010 - H026 - H030 - H036 - H017 - H031 - H021 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H021 - H031 - H017 - H036 - H030 - H026 - H010 - H027 - id: HIR0135 family: matched item_ids: - H104 - H114 - H122 - H101 - H121 - H119 - H120 - H118 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H104 - H114 - H122 - H101 - H121 - H119 - H120 - H118 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H118 - H120 - H119 - H121 - H101 - H122 - H114 - H104 - id: HIR0137 family: matched item_ids: - H104 - H101 - H117 - H114 - H115 - H118 - H120 - H121 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H104 - H101 - H117 - H114 - H115 - H118 - H120 - H121 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H121 - H120 - H118 - H115 - H114 - H117 - H101 - H104 - id: HIR0116 family: matched item_ids: - H106 - H117 - H102 - H120 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H106 - H117 - H102 - H120 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H120 - H102 - H117 - H106 - id: HIR0014 family: candidates item_ids: - H009 - H001 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H009 - H001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H001 - H009 - id: HIR0076 family: candidates item_ids: - H018 - H009 - H036 - H025 - H026 - H029 - H030 - H033 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H018 - H009 - H036 - H025 - H026 - H029 - H030 - H033 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H033 - H030 - H029 - H026 - H025 - H036 - H009 - H018 - id: HIR0066 family: candidates item_ids: - H032 - H029 - H003 - H023 - H026 - H001 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H032 - H029 - H003 - H023 - H026 - H001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H001 - H026 - H023 - H003 - H029 - H032 - id: HIR0047 family: candidates item_ids: - H014 - H023 - H029 - H018 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H014 - H023 - H029 - H018 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H018 - H029 - H023 - H014 - id: HIR0100 family: candidates item_ids: - H031 - H033 - H028 - H032 - H013 - H011 - H021 - H036 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H031 - H033 - H028 - H032 - H013 - H011 - H021 - H036 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H036 - H021 - H011 - H013 - H032 - H028 - H033 - H031 - id: HIR0058 family: candidates item_ids: - H029 - H028 - H014 - H030 - H025 - H006 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H029 - H028 - H014 - H030 - H025 - H006 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H006 - H025 - H030 - H014 - H028 - H029 - id: HIR0130 family: matched item_ids: - H109 - H120 - H118 - H112 - H117 - H124 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H109 - H120 - H118 - H112 - H117 - H124 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H124 - H117 - H112 - H118 - H120 - H109 - id: HIR0009 family: candidates item_ids: - H001 - H013 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H001 - H013 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H013 - H001 - id: HIR0096 family: candidates item_ids: - H026 - H022 - H032 - H020 - H024 - H035 - H012 - H027 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H026 - H022 - H032 - H020 - H024 - H035 - H012 - H027 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H027 - H012 - H035 - H024 - H020 - H032 - H022 - H026 - id: HIR0015 family: candidates item_ids: - H007 - H002 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H007 - H002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H002 - H007 - id: HIR0068 family: candidates item_ids: - H027 - H018 - H032 - H033 - H016 - H023 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H027 - H018 - H032 - H033 - H016 - H023 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H023 - H016 - H033 - H032 - H018 - H027 - id: HIR0054 family: candidates item_ids: - H026 - H005 - H029 - H024 - H031 - H014 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H026 - H005 - H029 - H024 - H031 - H014 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H014 - H031 - H024 - H029 - H005 - H026 - id: HIR0095 family: candidates item_ids: - H017 - H019 - H027 - H028 - H034 - H032 - H031 - H030 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H017 - H019 - H027 - H028 - H034 - H032 - H031 - H030 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H030 - H031 - H032 - H034 - H028 - H027 - H019 - H017 - id: HIR0017 family: candidates item_ids: - H001 - H002 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H001 - H002 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H002 - H001 - id: HIR0134 family: matched item_ids: - H119 - H114 - H102 - H113 - H117 - H109 - H124 - H120 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H119 - H114 - H102 - H113 - H117 - H109 - H124 - H120 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H120 - H124 - H109 - H117 - H113 - H102 - H114 - H119 - id: HIR0133 family: matched item_ids: - H105 - H114 - H115 - H124 - H119 - H122 - H109 - H121 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H105 - H114 - H115 - H124 - H119 - H122 - H109 - H121 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H121 - H109 - H122 - H119 - H124 - H115 - H114 - H105 - id: HIR0023 family: candidates item_ids: - H014 - H019 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H014 - H019 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H019 - H014 - id: HIR0005 family: candidates item_ids: - H012 - H001 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H012 - H001 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H001 - H012 - id: HIR0083 family: candidates item_ids: - H020 - H035 - H001 - H023 - H025 - H031 - H022 - H024 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H020 - H035 - H001 - H023 - H025 - H031 - H022 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H022 - H031 - H025 - H023 - H001 - H035 - H020 - id: HIR0061 family: candidates item_ids: - H036 - H001 - H021 - H034 - H006 - H032 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H036 - H001 - H021 - H034 - H006 - H032 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H032 - H006 - H034 - H021 - H001 - H036 - id: HIR0092 family: candidates item_ids: - H005 - H027 - H024 - H028 - H023 - H002 - H021 - H030 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H005 - H027 - H024 - H028 - H023 - H002 - H021 - H030 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H030 - H021 - H002 - H023 - H028 - H024 - H027 - H005 - id: HIR0004 family: candidates item_ids: - H017 - H010 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H017 - H010 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H010 - H017 - id: HIR0138 family: matched item_ids: - H120 - H110 - H119 - H113 - H122 - H123 - H107 - H117 menu_size: 8 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H120 - H110 - H119 - H113 - H122 - H123 - H107 - H117 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H117 - H107 - H123 - H122 - H113 - H119 - H110 - H120 - id: HIR0007 family: candidates item_ids: - H009 - H014 menu_size: 2 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H009 - H014 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H014 - H009 - id: HIR0029 family: candidates item_ids: - H010 - H024 - H032 - H017 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H010 - H024 - H032 - H017 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H017 - H032 - H024 - H010 - id: HIR0045 family: candidates item_ids: - H013 - H028 - H011 - H022 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H013 - H028 - H011 - H022 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H022 - H011 - H028 - H013 - id: HIR0065 family: candidates item_ids: - H004 - H008 - H036 - H025 - H022 - H031 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H004 - H008 - H036 - H025 - H022 - H031 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H031 - H022 - H025 - H036 - H008 - H004 - id: HIR0034 family: candidates item_ids: - H013 - H009 - H035 - H024 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: strong presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H013 - H009 - H035 - H024 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H024 - H035 - H009 - H013 - id: HIR0038 family: candidates item_ids: - H009 - H026 - H003 - H025 menu_size: 4 difficulty_stratum: ambiguous presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H009 - H026 - H003 - H025 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H025 - H003 - H026 - H009 - id: HIR0071 family: candidates item_ids: - H030 - H035 - H024 - H018 - H019 - H031 menu_size: 6 difficulty_stratum: weak presentations: - presentation_id: 1 order: - H030 - H035 - H024 - H018 - H019 - H031 - presentation_id: 2 order: - H031 - H019 - H018 - H024 - H035 - H030 probabilities: gpt-4o: H001: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H002: - 0.05 - 0.35 - 0.6 H003: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H004: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H005: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H006: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H007: - 0.05 - 0.55 - 0.4 H008: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H009: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H010: - 0.1 - 0.4 - 0.5 H011: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H012: &id009 - 0.2 - 0.5 - 0.3 H013: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H014: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H015: &id010 - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H016: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H017: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H018: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H019: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H020: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H021: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H022: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H023: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H024: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H025: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H026: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H027: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H028: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H029: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H030: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H031: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H032: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H033: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H034: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H035: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H036: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H101: &id016 - 0.05 - 0.35 - 0.6 H102: &id014 - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H103: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H104: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H105: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H106: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H107: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 H108: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H109: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H110: - 0.5 - 0.3 - 0.2 H111: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H112: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H113: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H114: &id013 - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H115: &id011 - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H116: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H117: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H118: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H119: &id015 - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H120: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H121: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H122: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H123: &id012 - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H124: - 0.8 - 0.15 - 0.05 gpt-4o-mini: H001: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H002: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H003: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H004: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H005: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H006: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H007: - 0.1 - 0.7 - 0.2 H008: - 0.15 - 0.7 - 0.15 H009: - 0.1 - 0.7 - 0.2 H010: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H011: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 H012: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H013: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H014: - 0.4 - 0.4 - 0.2 H015: - 0.4 - 0.4 - 0.2 H016: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H017: - 0.4 - 0.5 - 0.1 H018: - 0.25 - 0.55 - 0.2 H019: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H020: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H021: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H022: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H023: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H024: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H025: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H026: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H027: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H028: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H029: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H030: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H031: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H032: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H033: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H034: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H035: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H036: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H101: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H102: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H103: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H104: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H105: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H106: - 0.1 - 0.7 - 0.2 H107: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 H108: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H109: - 0.25 - 0.55 - 0.2 H110: - 0.4 - 0.5 - 0.1 H111: - 0.4 - 0.5 - 0.1 H112: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H113: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H114: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H115: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H116: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H117: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H118: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H119: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H120: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H121: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H122: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H123: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H124: - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.20000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 o3-mini: H001: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H002: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H003: - 0.1 - 0.75 - 0.15 H004: - 0.1 - 0.45 - 0.45 H005: - 0.1 - 0.5 - 0.4 H006: - 0.05 - 0.4 - 0.55 H007: - 0.1 - 0.65 - 0.25 H008: - 0.1 - 0.75 - 0.15 H009: - 0.1 - 0.4 - 0.5 H010: - 0.05 - 0.25 - 0.7 H011: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H012: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 H013: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H014: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H015: - 0.2 - 0.55 - 0.25 H016: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H017: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H018: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H019: - 0.45 - 0.45 - 0.1 H020: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H021: - 0.5 - 0.35 - 0.15 H022: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H023: - 0.45 - 0.45 - 0.1 H024: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H025: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 H026: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H027: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H028: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H029: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H030: - 0.8 - 0.15 - 0.05 H031: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H032: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H033: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H034: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H035: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H036: - 0.8 - 0.2 - 0.0 H101: - 0.05 - 0.1 - 0.85 H102: - 0.05 - 0.7 - 0.25 H103: - 0.05 - 0.5 - 0.45 H104: - 0.05 - 0.2 - 0.75 H105: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H106: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H107: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H108: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H109: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H110: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H111: - 0.2 - 0.65 - 0.15 H112: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H113: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H114: - 0.4 - 0.5 - 0.1 H115: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H116: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H117: - 0.4 - 0.45 - 0.15 H118: - 0.5 - 0.3 - 0.2 H119: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 H120: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H121: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H122: - 0.75 - 0.2 - 0.05 H123: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H124: - 0.85 - 0.1 - 0.05 claude-sonnet-4-5: H001: - 0.05 - 0.55 - 0.4 H002: - 0.05 - 0.35 - 0.6 H003: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H004: - 0.05 - 0.5 - 0.45 H005: - 0.05 - 0.55 - 0.4 H006: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H007: - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 H008: - 0.15 - 0.7 - 0.15 H009: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H010: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H011: - 0.15 - 0.5 - 0.35 H012: - 0.2 - 0.55 - 0.25 H013: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H014: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H015: - 0.45 - 0.5 - 0.05 H016: - 0.25 - 0.55 - 0.2 H017: - 0.45 - 0.45 - 0.1 H018: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H019: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H020: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H021: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H022: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H023: - 0.45 - 0.5 - 0.05 H024: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H025: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H026: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H027: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H028: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H029: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H030: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H031: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H032: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H033: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H034: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H035: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H036: - 0.85 - 0.14 - 0.01 H101: - 0.05 - 0.35 - 0.6 H102: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H103: - 0.05 - 0.5 - 0.45 H104: - 0.05 - 0.35 - 0.6 H105: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H106: - 0.15 - 0.65 - 0.2 H107: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 H108: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H109: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H110: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H111: - 0.45 - 0.45 - 0.1 H112: - 0.45 - 0.5 - 0.05 H113: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H114: - 0.5 - 0.45 - 0.05 H115: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H116: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H117: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H118: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H119: - 0.7 - 0.27 - 0.03 H120: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H121: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H122: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H123: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H124: - 0.85 - 0.14 - 0.01 claude-haiku-4-5: H001: - 0.08 - 0.62 - 0.3 H002: - 0.08 - 0.6 - 0.32 H003: - 0.1 - 0.72 - 0.18 H004: - 0.08 - 0.62 - 0.3 H005: - 0.08 - 0.72 - 0.2 H006: - 0.08 - 0.68 - 0.24 H007: - 0.1 - 0.65 - 0.25 H008: - 0.1 - 0.72 - 0.18 H009: - 0.1 - 0.65 - 0.25 H010: - 0.08 - 0.6 - 0.32 H011: - 0.12 - 0.68 - 0.2 H012: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H013: - 0.4 - 0.45 - 0.15 H014: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H015: - 0.45 - 0.4 - 0.15 H016: - 0.2 - 0.65 - 0.15 H017: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H018: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H019: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H020: - 0.55 - 0.38 - 0.07 H021: - 0.55 - 0.38 - 0.07 H022: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H023: - 0.45 - 0.42 - 0.13 H024: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H025: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.32000000000000006 - 0.08000000000000002 H026: - 0.68 - 0.28 - 0.04 H027: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H028: - 0.68 - 0.28 - 0.04 H029: - 0.62 - 0.32 - 0.06 H030: - 0.72 - 0.24 - 0.04 H031: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.32000000000000006 - 0.08000000000000002 H032: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H033: - 0.68 - 0.28 - 0.04 H034: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H035: - 0.75 - 0.22 - 0.03 H036: - 0.75 - 0.22 - 0.03 H101: - 0.05 - 0.6 - 0.35 H102: - 0.08 - 0.72 - 0.2 H103: - 0.05 - 0.7 - 0.25 H104: - 0.08 - 0.52 - 0.4 H105: - 0.1 - 0.72 - 0.18 H106: - 0.12 - 0.72 - 0.16 H107: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H108: - 0.35 - 0.5 - 0.15 H109: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H110: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.30000000000000004 - 0.10000000000000002 H111: - 0.4 - 0.45 - 0.15 H112: - 0.55 - 0.35 - 0.1 H113: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.32000000000000006 - 0.08000000000000002 H114: - 0.55 - 0.38 - 0.07 H115: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H116: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H117: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H118: - 0.6000000000000001 - 0.32000000000000006 - 0.08000000000000002 H119: - 0.68 - 0.28 - 0.04 H120: - 0.75 - 0.22 - 0.03 H121: - 0.68 - 0.28 - 0.04 H122: - 0.75 - 0.22 - 0.03 H123: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H124: - 0.75 - 0.2 - 0.05 claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking: H001: - 0.08 - 0.35 - 0.57 H002: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H003: - 0.08000000000000002 - 0.7000000000000001 - 0.22000000000000003 H004: - 0.1 - 0.35 - 0.55 H005: - 0.08 - 0.35 - 0.57 H006: - 0.08 - 0.3 - 0.62 H007: - 0.1 - 0.4 - 0.5 H008: - 0.1 - 0.7 - 0.2 H009: - 0.1 - 0.35 - 0.55 H010: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H011: - 0.1 - 0.35 - 0.55 H012: - 0.15 - 0.6 - 0.25 H013: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H014: - 0.25 - 0.55 - 0.2 H015: - 0.35 - 0.55 - 0.1 H016: - 0.25 - 0.6 - 0.15 H017: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H018: - 0.2 - 0.6 - 0.2 H019: - 0.45 - 0.43 - 0.12 H020: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H021: - 0.55 - 0.38 - 0.07 H022: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H023: - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.1 H024: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H025: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H026: - 0.68 - 0.27 - 0.05 H027: - 0.6 - 0.35 - 0.05 H028: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H029: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H030: - 0.75 - 0.23 - 0.02 H031: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H032: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H033: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H034: - 0.72 - 0.23 - 0.05 H035: - 0.78 - 0.2 - 0.02 H036: - 0.85 - 0.14 - 0.01 H101: - 0.05 - 0.3 - 0.65 H102: - 0.05 - 0.55 - 0.4 H103: - 0.05 - 0.45 - 0.5 H104: - 0.08 - 0.3 - 0.62 H105: - 0.1 - 0.55 - 0.35 H106: - 0.1 - 0.55 - 0.35 H107: - 0.3 - 0.5 - 0.2 H108: - 0.25 - 0.58 - 0.17 H109: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H110: - 0.4 - 0.45 - 0.15 H111: - 0.3 - 0.55 - 0.15 H112: - 0.48 - 0.45 - 0.07 H113: - 0.6 - 0.35 - 0.05 H114: - 0.6 - 0.35 - 0.05 H115: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H116: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H117: - 0.7 - 0.25 - 0.05 H118: - 0.55 - 0.4 - 0.05 H119: - 0.68 - 0.27 - 0.05 H120: - 0.75 - 0.22 - 0.03 H121: - 0.65 - 0.3 - 0.05 H122: - 0.85 - 0.14 - 0.01 H123: - 0.72 - 0.23 - 0.05 H124: - 0.8 - 0.17 - 0.03 assessment_instruction: neutral gate: schema_version: '1.0' pool_id: hiring n_items: 60 n_menus: 140 design_seed: 42 thresholds: pc1_auc_strong_vs_weak: 0.75 pc1_spearman_vs_merit: 0.35 r0_pool: 0.3 r0_model_pool: 0.2 eta_gap_max_cross_pool_diff: 0.25 eta_gap_max_cross_size_diff: 0.25 max_assessment_parse_failure: 0.05 r3_dim: 8 r3_ridge_alpha: 1.0 lda_dim: 8 lda_shrinkage: 0.001 min_items_for_check: 12 eta_gap_axis: embedding provisional: false frozen_at: '2026-09-06' provisional_thresholds: false checks: quality_axis: n_items: 60 merit_source: merit_total label_counts: strong: 16 ambiguous: 16 weak: 28 pc1: auc_strong_vs_weak: 0.5982 spearman_vs_merit: 0.1109 meets_threshold: false axis: lda status: ok passed: true lda: dim: 8 loo_auc_strong_vs_weak: 1.0 loo_spearman_vs_merit: 0.7276 meets_threshold: true note: PC1 did not separate the authored labels; the plan's label-supervised fallback is in use as the quality proxy (§6.3 R4) eta_gap: overall: n: 140 mean: 0.7678 sd: 0.5983 by_size: '2': n: 35 mean: 0.7727 sd: 0.6316 '4': n: 35 mean: 0.7834 sd: 0.6049 '6': n: 35 mean: 0.7803 sd: 0.5784 '8': n: 35 mean: 0.735 sd: 0.6021 by_family_size: candidates/2: n: 25 mean: 0.8732 sd: 0.6659 candidates/4: n: 25 mean: 0.7915 sd: 0.6 candidates/6: n: 25 mean: 0.7774 sd: 0.6118 candidates/8: n: 25 mean: 0.7372 sd: 0.6365 matched/2: n: 10 mean: 0.5213 sd: 0.4756 matched/4: n: 10 mean: 0.7631 sd: 0.6494 matched/6: n: 10 mean: 0.7878 sd: 0.5155 matched/8: n: 10 mean: 0.7293 sd: 0.5376 by_stratum: ambiguous: n: 44 mean: 0.2309 sd: 0.1551 strong: n: 52 mean: 1.3865 sd: 0.4573 weak: n: 44 mean: 0.5736 sd: 0.2974 cross_size: pairwise_abs_diff: 2_vs_4: 0.0107 2_vs_6: 0.0077 2_vs_8: 0.0377 4_vs_6: 0.003 4_vs_8: 0.0484 6_vs_8: 0.0454 worst: 0.0484 threshold: 0.25 passed: true pairwise_abs_cohens_d: 2_vs_4: 0.0173 2_vs_6: 0.0127 2_vs_8: 0.0611 4_vs_6: 0.0051 4_vs_8: 0.0802 6_vs_8: 0.0769 units: pool-standardized quality-score units; Cohen's d is reported alongside as a diagnostic and is not the pass rule cross_pool: status: evaluated pools_compared: - venture pairwise_abs_diff: venture: 0.0601 worst: 0.0601 threshold: 0.25 passed: true passed: true status: ok predictive_validity: status: ok passed: true pooled: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7715 - 0.6257 r2: 0.6986 threshold_pool: 0.3 by_model: claude_haiku_4_5: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7823 - 0.4099 r2: 0.5961 claude_sonnet_4_5: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7425 - 0.5825 r2: 0.6625 claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7696 - 0.6939 r2: 0.7318 gpt_4o: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7339 - 0.5537 r2: 0.6438 gpt_4o_mini: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.769 - -0.029 r2: 0.37 o3_mini: status: ok n: 60 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.5919 - 0.269 r2: 0.4305 threshold_model_pool: 0.2 model_meets_threshold: claude_haiku_4_5: true claude_sonnet_4_5: true claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: true gpt_4o: true gpt_4o_mini: true o3_mini: true by_menu_size: '2': status: ok n: 27 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.6545 - 0.5041 r2: 0.5793 '4': status: ok n: 53 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7251 - 0.5714 r2: 0.6483 '6': status: ok n: 58 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7725 - 0.6332 r2: 0.7028 '8': status: ok n: 58 dim: 8 r2_by_response: - 0.7665 - 0.6248 r2: 0.6957 note: pooled R^2 blocks; the per-model x pool matrix is the §9.2 differential-mis-measurement diagnostic and reports only (§5) assessment_parse: status: ok passed: true failure_rate_by_model: claude_haiku_4_5: 0.0 claude_sonnet_4_5: 0.0 claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking: 0.0 gpt_4o: 0.0 gpt_4o_mini: 0.0 o3_mini: 0.0 worst: 0.0 threshold: 0.05 quality_axis: lda diagnostics: belief_quality_axis: status: ok axis: belief n_items: 60 n_models: 6 auc_strong_vs_weak: 1.0 spearman_vs_label_ordinal: 0.9173 meets_threshold: true mean_by_label: strong: 1.3028 ambiguous: 0.8154 weak: 0.438 note: diagnostic; does not decide the gate unless eta_gap_axis='belief' eta_gap_alternative_axis: axis: belief overall: n: 140 mean: 0.7969 sd: 0.5117 by_size: '2': n: 35 mean: 0.8268 sd: 0.5478 '4': n: 35 mean: 0.7547 sd: 0.484 '6': n: 35 mean: 0.8395 sd: 0.5313 '8': n: 35 mean: 0.7667 sd: 0.4984 worst_cross_size_diff: null would_pass: true note: diagnostic; not part of the pass/fail decision eta_gap_axis: embedding failed_checks: [] passed: true status: passed examples: - pool: venture family: startup model: gpt-4o condition: neutral problem_id: VEN0018 presentation_id: 1 item_order: - V012 - V015 matched_keys: null choice_messages: - role: system content: 'You are an analyst at an early-stage venture fund. You are choosing which one of several ventures to fund.' - role: user content: 'Below are assessments of 2 ventures. 1. Venture V012 shows promise due to the founding team''s strong track record and the product''s maturity, which is supported by a stable production and a clear roadmap. The presence of several paid pilots indicates potential demand, although the lack of reported usage or revenue is a concern. The positive unit economics suggest a scalable business model, but the absence of traction could hinder growth. Given these factors, the venture has a moderate chance of achieving a high return, but the risk of loss remains significant due to the early stage and traction concerns. PROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.3, 0.3 2. Venture V015 shows promise with positive unit economics and a stable product in production, which are strong indicators of potential success. However, the lack of a proven track record from the founding team and early usage falling below expectations are significant concerns that could hinder growth and execution. The presence of several paid pilots suggests some market interest, but the team''s ability to scale and meet demand remains uncertain. Given these factors, the likelihood of a high return is moderate, with a slightly higher chance of breaking even or incurring a loss due to execution risks. PROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.35, 0.25 Choose which venture to fund. Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and 2 identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' assessment_item_id: V012 assessment_messages: - role: system content: 'You are an analyst at an early-stage venture fund. You review prospective investments and judge how they are likely to turn out. ' - role: user content: "Review the following venture and assess how likely each possible outcome is.\n\nVenture:\nVenture\ \ V012 -- health data infrastructure; pre-seed stage.\n\nTeam record: founding team has a sustained record\ \ of shipping comparable products successfully.\nTraction: no usage or revenue reported to date.\nDemand evidence:\ \ several paid pilots.\nProduct maturity: product is in stable production with a documented roadmap.\nUnit\ \ economics: positive at the contribution-margin level and widening across cohorts.\nNoted reservation: the\ \ investment committee flagged the traction evidence as the weakest part of the file.\n\nPossible outcomes:\n\ \ 1. Loss: the committed capital is not recovered\n 2. Break-even: the commitment is recovered with no material\ \ gain\n 3. High return: the commitment returns a substantial gain\n\nGive a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences,\ \ then end your reply with a single\nline in exactly this format:\nPROBABILITIES: , , \n\nThe\ \ probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1.\n" assessments: - item_id: V012 text: 'Venture V012 shows promise due to the founding team''s strong track record and the product''s maturity, which is supported by a stable production and a clear roadmap. The presence of several paid pilots indicates potential demand, although the lack of reported usage or revenue is a concern. The positive unit economics suggest a scalable business model, but the absence of traction could hinder growth. Given these factors, the venture has a moderate chance of achieving a high return, but the risk of loss remains significant due to the early stage and traction concerns. PROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.3, 0.3' probabilities: *id001 - item_id: V015 text: 'Venture V015 shows promise with positive unit economics and a stable product in production, which are strong indicators of potential success. However, the lack of a proven track record from the founding team and early usage falling below expectations are significant concerns that could hinder growth and execution. The presence of several paid pilots suggests some market interest, but the team''s ability to scale and meet demand remains uncertain. Given these factors, the likelihood of a high return is moderate, with a slightly higher chance of breaking even or incurring a loss due to execution risks. PROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.35, 0.25' probabilities: *id002 - pool: venture family: procurement model: gpt-4o condition: neutral problem_id: VEN0126 presentation_id: 1 item_order: - P015 - P023 - P014 - P002 - P019 - P001 matched_keys: - MK01 - MK02 - MK14 - MK15 - MK19 - MK23 choice_messages: - role: system content: 'You are an analyst at a procurement office. You are choosing which one of several vendors to engage.' - role: user content: "Below are assessments of 6 vendors.\n\n1. Vendor P015 presents a mixed picture with some strengths\ \ in their technical proposal but significant weaknesses in scope coverage and past performance. The limited\ \ scope coverage and mixed prior contract outcomes suggest a higher risk of underperformance. The brief and\ \ non-specific past-client references further add to the uncertainty. Given these factors, the likelihood\ \ of a loss is relatively high, with a moderate chance of breaking even, and a low probability of achieving\ \ a high return.\n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.5, 0.4, 0.1\n\n2. Vendor P023 presents a concerning profile due to their\ \ incomplete technical proposal and low technical review score, which suggests a lack of alignment with the\ \ project requirements. Despite a history of successful contract deliveries, the inability to complete past-client\ \ references and limited scope coverage further undermine confidence in their ability to deliver on this engagement.\ \ Given these factors, the likelihood of a loss is high, while the chances of breaking even or achieving a\ \ high return are significantly lower.\n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.7, 0.25, 0.05\n\n3. Vendor P014 presents a moderate\ \ risk due to several issues in their proposal, including correctness and clarity problems, and a lack of\ \ completed past-client references. Their prior contract delivery record shows mixed results, which suggests\ \ inconsistency in performance. Given these factors, the likelihood of a loss is higher than a high return,\ \ with a break-even outcome being somewhat probable if they manage to meet the basic requirements without\ \ significant issues.\n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.4, 0.2\n\n4. Vendor P002 demonstrates a strong track record\ \ with successful outcomes on similar contracts and has received positive feedback from past clients. Their\ \ technical proposal is well-organized and meets all requirements, with only minor gaps, and their bid scored\ \ highly in the technical review. Given these factors, the likelihood of a high return is significant, while\ \ the risk of a loss is minimal. \n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.25, 0.70\n\n5. Vendor P019 presents several concerns,\ \ including an incomplete technical proposal and limited scope coverage, which suggest a higher risk of underperformance.\ \ The mixed results from a prior contract and the inability to complete past-client references further compound\ \ the uncertainty. While the technical review board scored the bid in the upper-middle band, the noted reservations\ \ about the proposal weaken confidence in achieving a high return. Therefore, the likelihood of a loss is\ \ significant, with a moderate chance of breaking even, and a low probability of a high return.\n\nPROBABILITIES:\ \ 0.6, 0.35, 0.05\n\n6. Vendor P001 demonstrates a strong track record in quality assurance services, with\ \ a comprehensive technical proposal and positive past-client references. The vendor's history of successful\ \ contract delivery and high technical review scores suggest a high likelihood of achieving a substantial\ \ gain. Given these factors, the probability of a loss is minimal, while the probability of a high return\ \ is significant.\n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.15, 0.80\n\nChoose which vendor to engage.\n\nBegin your reply\ \ with a single line in exactly this format:\nANSWER: n\n\nwhere n is a whole number between 1 and 6 identifying\ \ your choice.\nYou may explain your reasoning after that line.\n" assessment_item_id: P015 assessment_messages: - role: system content: 'You are an analyst at a procurement office. You review prospective vendors and judge how an engagement with them is likely to turn out. ' - role: user content: "Review the following vendor and assess how likely each possible outcome\nis.\n\nVendor:\nVendor P015\ \ -- records management services; 9+ years operating in this service category.\n\nTechnical proposal: met\ \ all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps.\nPrior contract delivery record: documented\ \ outcomes on one comparable prior contract, with mixed results.\nTechnical review board: scored the bid in\ \ the lower-middle band of the rubric.\nPast-client references: returned brief, non-specific responses.\n\ Scope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the statement of work requires.\nNoted reservation: evaluators\ \ flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the bid.\n\nPossible outcomes:\n 1. Loss: the committed capital\ \ is not recovered\n 2. Break-even: the commitment is recovered with no material gain\n 3. High return:\ \ the commitment returns a substantial gain\n\nGive a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences, then end your reply\ \ with a\nsingle line in exactly this format:\nPROBABILITIES: , , \n\nThe probabilities must be\ \ decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1.\n" assessments: - item_id: P015 text: 'Vendor P015 presents a mixed picture with some strengths in their technical proposal but significant weaknesses in scope coverage and past performance. The limited scope coverage and mixed prior contract outcomes suggest a higher risk of underperformance. The brief and non-specific past-client references further add to the uncertainty. Given these factors, the likelihood of a loss is relatively high, with a moderate chance of breaking even, and a low probability of achieving a high return. PROBABILITIES: 0.5, 0.4, 0.1' probabilities: *id003 - item_id: P023 text: 'Vendor P023 presents a concerning profile due to their incomplete technical proposal and low technical review score, which suggests a lack of alignment with the project requirements. Despite a history of successful contract deliveries, the inability to complete past-client references and limited scope coverage further undermine confidence in their ability to deliver on this engagement. Given these factors, the likelihood of a loss is high, while the chances of breaking even or achieving a high return are significantly lower. PROBABILITIES: 0.7, 0.25, 0.05' probabilities: *id004 - item_id: P014 text: 'Vendor P014 presents a moderate risk due to several issues in their proposal, including correctness and clarity problems, and a lack of completed past-client references. Their prior contract delivery record shows mixed results, which suggests inconsistency in performance. Given these factors, the likelihood of a loss is higher than a high return, with a break-even outcome being somewhat probable if they manage to meet the basic requirements without significant issues. PROBABILITIES: 0.4, 0.4, 0.2' probabilities: *id005 - item_id: P002 text: "Vendor P002 demonstrates a strong track record with successful outcomes on similar contracts and has\ \ received positive feedback from past clients. Their technical proposal is well-organized and meets all requirements,\ \ with only minor gaps, and their bid scored highly in the technical review. Given these factors, the likelihood\ \ of a high return is significant, while the risk of a loss is minimal. \n\nPROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.25, 0.70" probabilities: *id006 - item_id: P019 text: 'Vendor P019 presents several concerns, including an incomplete technical proposal and limited scope coverage, which suggest a higher risk of underperformance. The mixed results from a prior contract and the inability to complete past-client references further compound the uncertainty. While the technical review board scored the bid in the upper-middle band, the noted reservations about the proposal weaken confidence in achieving a high return. Therefore, the likelihood of a loss is significant, with a moderate chance of breaking even, and a low probability of a high return. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.35, 0.05' probabilities: *id007 - item_id: P001 text: 'Vendor P001 demonstrates a strong track record in quality assurance services, with a comprehensive technical proposal and positive past-client references. The vendor''s history of successful contract delivery and high technical review scores suggest a high likelihood of achieving a substantial gain. Given these factors, the probability of a loss is minimal, while the probability of a high return is significant. PROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.15, 0.80' probabilities: *id008 - pool: hiring family: candidates model: gpt-4o condition: neutral problem_id: HIR0018 presentation_id: 1 item_order: - H012 - H015 matched_keys: null choice_messages: - role: system content: 'You are a hiring analyst. You are choosing which one of several candidates to advance to the final round.' - role: user content: 'Below are assessments of 2 candidates. 1. Candidate H012 demonstrates strong potential through their work sample and structured interview performance, indicating a solid understanding of logistics coordination. The corroborated reference checks further support their claimed contributions. However, the lack of a documented delivery record introduces some uncertainty about their ability to consistently meet expectations. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to meet or exceed expectations, but there remains a risk of underperformance due to the flagged delivery record. PROBABILITIES: 0.2, 0.5, 0.3 2. Candidate H015 has a solid background in data platform engineering with over nine years of experience, and their structured interview performance was strong. However, the incomplete work sample and mixed results on a comparable project raise concerns about their ability to consistently deliver. While their reference checks are positive and they cover all required capabilities, the noted reservation about the work sample suggests potential risk. Therefore, the candidate is more likely to meet expectations, but there is a significant chance of underperformance. PROBABILITIES: 0.35, 0.50, 0.15 Choose which candidate to advance to the final round. Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and 2 identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' assessment_item_id: H012 assessment_messages: - role: system content: 'You are a hiring analyst. You review structured candidate profiles and judge how a candidate is likely to perform in the role. ' - role: user content: "Review the following candidate profile and assess how likely each possible\noutcome is if this candidate\ \ were hired.\n\nCandidate profile:\nCandidate H012 -- logistics coordination; 2-4 years of experience in\ \ this function.\n\nWork sample: met all requirements and handled edge cases unusually thoroughly.\nPrior\ \ delivery record: no documented outcomes from comparable prior work.\nStructured interview panel: scored\ \ the file in the upper-middle band of the rubric.\nReference checks: corroborated the claimed contributions.\n\ Scope coverage: covers all of the capabilities the role scope requires.\nNoted reservation: reviewers flagged\ \ the delivery record as the weakest part of the file.\n\nPossible outcomes:\n 1. Underperforms: falls short\ \ of what the role requires\n 2. Meets expectations: performs at the level the role requires\n 3. Exceeds\ \ expectations: performs well above the level the role requires\n\nGive a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences,\ \ then end your reply with a single\nline in exactly this format:\nPROBABILITIES: , , \n\nThe\ \ probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1.\n" assessments: - item_id: H012 text: 'Candidate H012 demonstrates strong potential through their work sample and structured interview performance, indicating a solid understanding of logistics coordination. The corroborated reference checks further support their claimed contributions. However, the lack of a documented delivery record introduces some uncertainty about their ability to consistently meet expectations. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to meet or exceed expectations, but there remains a risk of underperformance due to the flagged delivery record. PROBABILITIES: 0.2, 0.5, 0.3' probabilities: *id009 - item_id: H015 text: 'Candidate H015 has a solid background in data platform engineering with over nine years of experience, and their structured interview performance was strong. However, the incomplete work sample and mixed results on a comparable project raise concerns about their ability to consistently deliver. While their reference checks are positive and they cover all required capabilities, the noted reservation about the work sample suggests potential risk. Therefore, the candidate is more likely to meet expectations, but there is a significant chance of underperformance. PROBABILITIES: 0.35, 0.50, 0.15' probabilities: *id010 - pool: hiring family: matched model: gpt-4o condition: neutral problem_id: HIR0126 presentation_id: 1 item_order: - H115 - H123 - H114 - H102 - H119 - H101 matched_keys: - MK01 - MK02 - MK14 - MK15 - MK19 - MK23 choice_messages: - role: system content: 'You are a hiring analyst. You are choosing which one of several candidates to advance to the final round.' - role: user content: 'Below are assessments of 6 candidates. 1. Candidate H115 has significant experience in records management, but there are concerns about their ability to meet the full scope of the role. The work sample was organized but had minor gaps, and the prior delivery record showed mixed results. The structured interview panel scored the candidate in the lower-middle band, and reference checks were non-specific, indicating potential issues with performance. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to underperform or meet expectations rather than exceed them. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 2. Candidate H123 has significant experience in network operations, which is a positive indicator. However, the incomplete work sample and low interview scores suggest potential issues with meeting the role''s requirements. The inability to complete reference checks and limited scope coverage further raise concerns about the candidate''s fit for the role. Given these factors, the likelihood of underperformance is higher than meeting or exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 3. Candidate H114 presents a mixed profile with several areas of concern. The work sample indicates issues with correctness and clarity, and the structured interview panel rated the candidate in the lower-middle band. The inability to complete reference checks further weakens the candidate''s profile. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to underperform, with a moderate chance of meeting expectations, and a low likelihood of exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 4. Candidate H102 appears to be a strong fit for the role, given their extensive experience in network operations and a proven track record of successful project delivery. The work sample, while having minor gaps, met all requirements and was well-organized, indicating a solid understanding of the necessary skills. The structured interview panel''s high score and positive reference checks further support the candidate''s capability to perform well. Given these factors, it is likely that the candidate will meet or exceed expectations in the role. PROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.45, 0.50 5. The candidate''s profile suggests a higher likelihood of underperformance due to the incomplete work sample and limited scope coverage. The mixed results from a comparable project and the inability to complete reference checks further contribute to this concern. While the structured interview panel scored the candidate in the upper-middle band, this alone may not compensate for the other weaknesses. Therefore, the probability of underperformance is higher than meeting or exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 6. Candidate H101 demonstrates a strong likelihood of success in the role based on their extensive experience, thorough handling of edge cases, and a track record of successful project delivery. The structured interview panel''s high scoring and positive reference checks further support their capability to meet or exceed expectations. Given the comprehensive coverage of required capabilities, the candidate is more likely to perform at or above the expected level. PROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.35, 0.60 Choose which candidate to advance to the final round. Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and 6 identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' assessment_item_id: H115 assessment_messages: - role: system content: 'You are a hiring analyst. You review structured candidate profiles and judge how a candidate is likely to perform in the role. ' - role: user content: "Review the following candidate profile and assess how likely each possible\noutcome is if this candidate\ \ were hired.\n\nCandidate profile:\nCandidate H115 -- records management; 9+ years of experience in this\ \ function.\n\nWork sample: met all requirements and was clearly organised, with minor gaps.\nPrior delivery\ \ record: documented outcomes on one comparable prior project, with mixed results.\nStructured interview panel:\ \ scored the file in the lower-middle band of the rubric.\nReference checks: returned brief, non-specific\ \ responses.\nScope coverage: covers few of the capabilities the role scope requires.\nNoted reservation:\ \ reviewers flagged the scope gap as the weakest part of the file.\n\nPossible outcomes:\n 1. Underperforms:\ \ falls short of what the role requires\n 2. Meets expectations: performs at the level the role requires\n\ \ 3. Exceeds expectations: performs well above the level the role requires\n\nGive a brief assessment in\ \ 2-4 sentences, then end your reply with a single\nline in exactly this format:\nPROBABILITIES: , ,\ \ \n\nThe probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1.\n" assessments: - item_id: H115 text: 'Candidate H115 has significant experience in records management, but there are concerns about their ability to meet the full scope of the role. The work sample was organized but had minor gaps, and the prior delivery record showed mixed results. The structured interview panel scored the candidate in the lower-middle band, and reference checks were non-specific, indicating potential issues with performance. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to underperform or meet expectations rather than exceed them. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1' probabilities: *id011 - item_id: H123 text: 'Candidate H123 has significant experience in network operations, which is a positive indicator. However, the incomplete work sample and low interview scores suggest potential issues with meeting the role''s requirements. The inability to complete reference checks and limited scope coverage further raise concerns about the candidate''s fit for the role. Given these factors, the likelihood of underperformance is higher than meeting or exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1' probabilities: *id012 - item_id: H114 text: 'Candidate H114 presents a mixed profile with several areas of concern. The work sample indicates issues with correctness and clarity, and the structured interview panel rated the candidate in the lower-middle band. The inability to complete reference checks further weakens the candidate''s profile. Given these factors, the candidate is more likely to underperform, with a moderate chance of meeting expectations, and a low likelihood of exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1' probabilities: *id013 - item_id: H102 text: 'Candidate H102 appears to be a strong fit for the role, given their extensive experience in network operations and a proven track record of successful project delivery. The work sample, while having minor gaps, met all requirements and was well-organized, indicating a solid understanding of the necessary skills. The structured interview panel''s high score and positive reference checks further support the candidate''s capability to perform well. Given these factors, it is likely that the candidate will meet or exceed expectations in the role. PROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.45, 0.50' probabilities: *id014 - item_id: H119 text: 'The candidate''s profile suggests a higher likelihood of underperformance due to the incomplete work sample and limited scope coverage. The mixed results from a comparable project and the inability to complete reference checks further contribute to this concern. While the structured interview panel scored the candidate in the upper-middle band, this alone may not compensate for the other weaknesses. Therefore, the probability of underperformance is higher than meeting or exceeding expectations. PROBABILITIES: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1' probabilities: *id015 - item_id: H101 text: 'Candidate H101 demonstrates a strong likelihood of success in the role based on their extensive experience, thorough handling of edge cases, and a track record of successful project delivery. The structured interview panel''s high scoring and positive reference checks further support their capability to meet or exceed expectations. Given the comprehensive coverage of required capabilities, the candidate is more likely to perform at or above the expected level. PROBABILITIES: 0.05, 0.35, 0.60' probabilities: *id016 templates: venture: startup: assessment_system: 'You are an analyst at an early-stage venture fund. You review prospective investments and judge how they are likely to turn out. ' assessment_user: 'Review the following venture and assess how likely each possible outcome is. Venture: {item_text} Possible outcomes: {consequence_lines} Give a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences, then end your reply with a single line in exactly this format: {probability_format} The probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1. ' choice_system: 'You are an analyst at an early-stage venture fund. You are choosing which one of several ventures to fund. ' choice_user: 'Below are assessments of {n_max} ventures. {assessments_list} {instruction} Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and {n_max} identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' choice_instructions: neutral: 'Choose which venture to fund. ' seu_maximizing: 'Choose the venture that maximizes subjective expected return, given your assessed likelihoods for each possible outcome and the value of those outcomes. ' deliberative: 'Think carefully and reason step by step before choosing. ' procurement: assessment_system: 'You are an analyst at a procurement office. You review prospective vendors and judge how an engagement with them is likely to turn out. ' assessment_user: 'Review the following vendor and assess how likely each possible outcome is. Vendor: {item_text} Possible outcomes: {consequence_lines} Give a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences, then end your reply with a single line in exactly this format: {probability_format} The probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1. ' choice_system: 'You are an analyst at a procurement office. You are choosing which one of several vendors to engage. ' choice_user: 'Below are assessments of {n_max} vendors. {assessments_list} {instruction} Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and {n_max} identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' choice_instructions: neutral: 'Choose which vendor to engage. ' seu_maximizing: 'Choose the vendor that maximizes subjective expected return, given your assessed likelihoods for each possible outcome and the value of those outcomes. ' deliberative: 'Think carefully and reason step by step before choosing. ' hiring: candidates: assessment_system: 'You are a hiring analyst. You review structured candidate profiles and judge how a candidate is likely to perform in the role. ' assessment_user: 'Review the following candidate profile and assess how likely each possible outcome is if this candidate were hired. Candidate profile: {item_text} Possible outcomes: {consequence_lines} Give a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences, then end your reply with a single line in exactly this format: {probability_format} The probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1. ' choice_system: 'You are a hiring analyst. You are choosing which one of several candidates to advance to the final round. ' choice_user: 'Below are assessments of {n_max} candidates. {assessments_list} {instruction} Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and {n_max} identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' choice_instructions: neutral: 'Choose which candidate to advance to the final round. ' seu_maximizing: 'Choose the candidate that maximizes subjective expected performance value, given your assessed likelihoods for each possible outcome and the value of those outcomes. ' deliberative: 'Think carefully and reason step by step before choosing. ' matched: assessment_system: 'You are a hiring analyst. You review structured candidate profiles and judge how a candidate is likely to perform in the role. ' assessment_user: 'Review the following candidate profile and assess how likely each possible outcome is if this candidate were hired. Candidate profile: {item_text} Possible outcomes: {consequence_lines} Give a brief assessment in 2-4 sentences, then end your reply with a single line in exactly this format: {probability_format} The probabilities must be decimals between 0 and 1 that sum to 1. ' choice_system: 'You are a hiring analyst. You are choosing which one of several candidates to advance to the final round. ' choice_user: 'Below are assessments of {n_max} candidates. {assessments_list} {instruction} Begin your reply with a single line in exactly this format: ANSWER: n where n is a whole number between 1 and {n_max} identifying your choice. You may explain your reasoning after that line. ' choice_instructions: neutral: 'Choose which candidate to advance to the final round. ' seu_maximizing: 'Choose the candidate that maximizes subjective expected performance value, given your assessed likelihoods for each possible outcome and the value of those outcomes. ' deliberative: 'Think carefully and reason step by step before choosing. ' contrasts: - contrast_id: rq1_gpt_4o_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: gpt-4o-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_o3_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: o3-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_haiku_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-haiku-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_openai_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: openai flagship minus small coefficients: - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: true - contrast_id: rq1_anthropic_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: anthropic flagship minus small coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq2_seu_maximizing_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: seu_maximizing minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq2_deliberative_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: deliberative minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: venture duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq6_gamma_size research_question: RQ6 pool: venture label: 'venture: log-alpha slope per added alternative' column_names: - gamma_size coefficients: - 1.0 rope_half_width: 0.04879016416943205 expected_direction: two_sided duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_gpt_4o_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: gpt-4o-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_o3_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: o3-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_haiku_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-haiku-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq1_openai_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: openai flagship minus small coefficients: - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: true - contrast_id: rq1_anthropic_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: anthropic flagship minus small coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq2_seu_maximizing_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: seu_maximizing minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq2_deliberative_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: deliberative minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: hiring duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq6_gamma_size research_question: RQ6 pool: hiring label: 'hiring: log-alpha slope per added alternative' column_names: - gamma_size coefficients: - 1.0 rope_half_width: 0.04879016416943205 expected_direction: two_sided duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_gpt_4o_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'gpt-4o: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_gpt_4o_mini_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'gpt-4o-mini: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_o3_mini_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'o3-mini: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_claude_sonnet_4_5_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'claude-sonnet-4-5: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_claude_haiku_4_5_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'claude-haiku-4-5: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false - contrast_id: rq5_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_hiring_minus_procurement research_question: RQ5 label: 'claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking: hiring minus procurement' coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative - task_hiring - task_hiring_x_model_gpt_4o_mini - task_hiring_x_model_o3_mini - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_haiku_4_5 - task_hiring_x_model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided pool: matched_rq5 duplicate_sign_reversal: false contract: central_interval_mass: 0.9 interval_quantiles: - 0.05 - 0.95 log_alpha_rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 menu_size_rope_half_width: 0.04879016416943205 bulk_ess_minimum: 400 tail_ess_minimum: 400 primary_contrasts: - contrast_id: rq1_gpt_4o_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: gpt-4o-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided - contrast_id: rq1_o3_mini_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: o3-mini minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided - contrast_id: rq1_claude_haiku_4_5_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-haiku-4-5 minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided - contrast_id: rq1_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_minus_gpt_4o research_question: RQ1 label: claude-sonnet-4-5-thinking minus gpt-4o coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided - contrast_id: rq1_openai_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: openai flagship minus small coefficients: - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive - contrast_id: rq1_anthropic_flagship_minus_small research_question: RQ1 label: anthropic flagship minus small coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - -1.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive - contrast_id: rq2_seu_maximizing_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: seu_maximizing minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: positive - contrast_id: rq2_deliberative_minus_neutral research_question: RQ2 label: deliberative minus neutral coefficients: - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.0 column_names: - model_gpt_4o_mini - model_o3_mini - model_claude_sonnet_4_5 - model_claude_haiku_4_5 - model_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking - prompt_seu_maximizing - prompt_deliberative rope_half_width: 0.22314355131420976 expected_direction: two_sided rq1_rq2_decisions_per_pool: 9 primary_decisions_per_pool: 10 matched_rq5_primary_decisions: 6 primary_decision_count: 26 rq3: status: secondary_descriptive_existing_fit estimand: sigma_cell, ordinary raw sigma_cell * z_alpha cell residuals, and draw-wise model-by-prompt difference-in-differences residuals_orthogonally_projected: false separate_saturated_fit: false reason: The full interaction exactly spans the additive residual cell space and adds no likelihood information. aliasing: n_cells: 18 additive_rank: 8 interaction_columns: 10 interaction_rank: 10 residual_cell_dimension: 10 residual_interaction_rank: 10 full_rank: 18 exactly_aliased_with_cell_residuals: true rq4: status: descriptive rq5: status: confirmatory_fit_validated estimand: within-model hiring-minus-procurement contrast in a dedicated matched-item fit representation: assessment_anchored_no_pca artifact_directory: matched_rq5 cross_pool_difference_in_differences: supporting rq6: parameter: gamma_size decision_rule: central 90% interval excludes zero and posterior median exceeds the menu-size ROPE primary_scope: one slope per primary pool; matched slope is sensitivity only, not an extra RQ6 primary family presentation_dependence_sensitivity: status: required_post_collection primary_analysis: both frozen presentations sensitivity_analyses: - presentation_1_only - presentation_2_only utility_middle: 0.5 outcome_conditioning: false report_disagreement_in: - sign - interval_decision - substantive_interpretation formal_sbc: decision: not_run reason: Exact production-geometry recovery directly calibrated the anchored estimands across 40 datasets for each primary fit geometry. scope_limitation: SBC under the fitted independent-observation model would not test misspecification from repeated-menu dependence. multiplicity: adjustment: none mitigation: - hierarchical shrinkage - ROPE report_full_family: true report_decision_count: true selection_from_family_prohibited: true planned_fit_variants: - scope: venture variant: primary utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: venture variant: utility_low utility_middle: 0.35 - scope: venture variant: utility_high utility_middle: 0.65 - scope: venture variant: presentation_1_only utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: venture variant: presentation_2_only utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: hiring variant: primary utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: hiring variant: utility_low utility_middle: 0.35 - scope: hiring variant: utility_high utility_middle: 0.65 - scope: hiring variant: presentation_1_only utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: hiring variant: presentation_2_only utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: matched_rq5 variant: primary utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: matched_rq5 variant: utility_low utility_middle: 0.35 - scope: matched_rq5 variant: utility_high utility_middle: 0.65 - scope: matched_rq5 variant: presentation_1_only utility_middle: 0.5 - scope: matched_rq5 variant: presentation_2_only utility_middle: 0.5 recovery: venture: source_root: results/parameter_recovery/h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_venture_recovery_pilot_500 last_launch_config: n_iterations: 40 n_mcmc_samples: 1000 n_mcmc_warmup: 1000 n_mcmc_chains: 4 adapt_delta: 0.95 max_treedepth: 12 J: 18 P: 7 M_total: 5040 sampling_schedules: - sampling: &id017 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) iterations: - 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 14 - 15 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 - 23 - 24 - 25 - 26 - 27 - 29 - 30 - 31 - 32 - 34 - 35 - 36 - 37 - 38 - 39 - 40 - sampling: &id018 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement iterations: - 3 - 13 - 16 - 28 - 33 iterations: - iteration: 1 sampling: *id017 max_rhat: 1.00501 min_ess_bulk: 1028.3 min_ess_tail: 1010.67 min_ebfmi: 0.7671036422109934 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 645.6158101558685 gamma_size: truth: 0.27275904 mean: 0.276311 lower: 0.252858 upper: 0.301032 passes: true - iteration: 2 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00688 min_ess_bulk: 708.5 min_ess_tail: 896.641 min_ebfmi: 0.8946246532752592 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 30 seconds: 308.68108105659485 gamma_size: truth: 0.10712606 mean: 0.120713 lower: 0.0991271 upper: 0.142462 passes: true - iteration: 3 sampling: *id018 max_rhat: 1.00258 min_ess_bulk: 2551.58 min_ess_tail: 2220.06 min_ebfmi: 0.8410077377749106 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 1364.6069869995117 gamma_size: truth: 0.0046246673 mean: 0.00684607 lower: -0.0125359 upper: 0.0265914 passes: true - iteration: 4 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00748 min_ess_bulk: 532.903 min_ess_tail: 829.235 min_ebfmi: 0.7370626547919991 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 19 seconds: 473.3246898651123 gamma_size: truth: 0.039084492 mean: 0.041125 lower: 0.0239269 upper: 0.0589114 passes: true - iteration: 5 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00411 min_ess_bulk: 905.398 min_ess_tail: 1026.45 min_ebfmi: 0.8513561194915326 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 662.3723142147064 gamma_size: truth: -0.25411648 mean: -0.25366 lower: -0.271514 upper: -0.235781 passes: true - iteration: 6 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00791 min_ess_bulk: 693.518 min_ess_tail: 928.814 min_ebfmi: 0.7479720621921006 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 410.7734127044678 gamma_size: truth: -0.2196768 mean: -0.225687 lower: -0.244222 upper: -0.206996 passes: true - iteration: 7 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00559 min_ess_bulk: 791.134 min_ess_tail: 998.817 min_ebfmi: 0.7394515429898745 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 30 seconds: 430.710736989975 gamma_size: truth: -0.47930959 mean: -0.511749 lower: -0.536801 upper: -0.486677 passes: true - iteration: 8 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00795 min_ess_bulk: 719.909 min_ess_tail: 916.288 min_ebfmi: 0.8520359529676406 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 302.11096596717834 gamma_size: truth: 0.36777692 mean: 0.35314 lower: 0.329567 upper: 0.377854 passes: true - iteration: 9 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00909 min_ess_bulk: 1547.0 min_ess_tail: 1101.17 min_ebfmi: 0.8363745058501864 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 772.4241127967834 gamma_size: truth: 0.21975668 mean: 0.210466 lower: 0.184927 upper: 0.237422 passes: true - iteration: 10 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00446 min_ess_bulk: 1125.92 min_ess_tail: 1078.64 min_ebfmi: 0.8542917366411004 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 660.7561068534851 gamma_size: truth: -0.2972646 mean: -0.29453 lower: -0.315016 upper: -0.27437 passes: true - iteration: 11 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00552 min_ess_bulk: 916.56 min_ess_tail: 1173.44 min_ebfmi: 0.7970877722476594 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 35 seconds: 727.6607019901276 gamma_size: truth: -0.069364757 mean: -0.0640254 lower: -0.0815654 upper: -0.0472079 passes: true - iteration: 12 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00779 min_ess_bulk: 591.302 min_ess_tail: 664.718 min_ebfmi: 0.9266985218988287 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 346.80233907699585 gamma_size: truth: 0.26565668 mean: 0.279392 lower: 0.25791 upper: 0.301563 passes: true - iteration: 13 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00697 min_ess_bulk: 682.67 min_ess_tail: 724.766 min_ebfmi: 0.6745661191674267 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 516.0118310451508 gamma_size: truth: -0.27449959 mean: -0.287825 lower: -0.30623 upper: -0.269541 passes: true - iteration: 14 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00678 min_ess_bulk: 633.687 min_ess_tail: 912.238 min_ebfmi: 0.7705498054315829 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 402.089369058609 gamma_size: truth: -0.061994742 mean: -0.0565865 lower: -0.0753404 upper: -0.0381161 passes: true - iteration: 15 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00765 min_ess_bulk: 718.524 min_ess_tail: 869.413 min_ebfmi: 0.7121863681744864 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 29 seconds: 557.828675031662 gamma_size: truth: 0.045931032 mean: 0.0613415 lower: 0.0426983 upper: 0.0795641 passes: true - iteration: 16 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00295 min_ess_bulk: 1546.3 min_ess_tail: 1960.77 min_ebfmi: 0.7462447583952233 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 525.0818288326263 gamma_size: truth: 0.10447698 mean: 0.116359 lower: 0.0945711 upper: 0.138345 passes: true - iteration: 17 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00626 min_ess_bulk: 706.42 min_ess_tail: 959.215 min_ebfmi: 0.6501661976330484 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 368.38639187812805 gamma_size: truth: 0.019044953 mean: 0.0157463 lower: -0.00357328 upper: 0.034616 passes: true - iteration: 18 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00727 min_ess_bulk: 791.584 min_ess_tail: 1052.09 min_ebfmi: 0.7157719185988126 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 471.7037479877472 gamma_size: truth: -0.029560771 mean: -0.0387802 lower: -0.058526 upper: -0.0190332 passes: true - iteration: 19 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00739 min_ess_bulk: 592.258 min_ess_tail: 721.394 min_ebfmi: 0.9095531861135324 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 310.923357963562 gamma_size: truth: 0.41979101 mean: 0.43721 lower: 0.413047 upper: 0.46108 passes: true - iteration: 20 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00651 min_ess_bulk: 912.236 min_ess_tail: 1050.52 min_ebfmi: 0.8853081628606254 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 557.6557490825653 gamma_size: truth: -0.23822585 mean: -0.242748 lower: -0.260031 upper: -0.225881 passes: true - iteration: 21 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00356 min_ess_bulk: 764.876 min_ess_tail: 757.623 min_ebfmi: 0.8699530717008105 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 338.3907701969147 gamma_size: truth: -0.45883301 mean: -0.442553 lower: -0.466213 upper: -0.418528 passes: true - iteration: 22 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00644 min_ess_bulk: 663.708 min_ess_tail: 872.379 min_ebfmi: 0.8775906205331915 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 39 seconds: 275.2907109260559 gamma_size: truth: -0.40489935 mean: -0.442991 lower: -0.476441 upper: -0.4113 passes: true - iteration: 23 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00385 min_ess_bulk: 803.666 min_ess_tail: 945.45 min_ebfmi: 0.7756982601700821 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 34 seconds: 593.9138448238373 gamma_size: truth: -0.09807516 mean: -0.107749 lower: -0.124858 upper: -0.0904606 passes: true - iteration: 24 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00558 min_ess_bulk: 876.735 min_ess_tail: 1045.39 min_ebfmi: 0.7674509550099673 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 37 seconds: 587.6335368156433 gamma_size: truth: -0.31720981 mean: -0.292345 lower: -0.315232 upper: -0.270199 passes: true - iteration: 25 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00661 min_ess_bulk: 677.507 min_ess_tail: 1033.39 min_ebfmi: 0.8311208666756551 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 397.6345319747925 gamma_size: truth: 0.32293216 mean: 0.299846 lower: 0.277517 upper: 0.321498 passes: true - iteration: 26 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00589 min_ess_bulk: 473.183 min_ess_tail: 806.584 min_ebfmi: 0.7930849178752232 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 18 seconds: 349.55145597457886 gamma_size: truth: -0.38008494 mean: -0.389536 lower: -0.410379 upper: -0.367835 passes: true - iteration: 27 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00535 min_ess_bulk: 633.378 min_ess_tail: 901.212 min_ebfmi: 0.7474693703144042 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 18 seconds: 405.4051148891449 gamma_size: truth: 0.064028038 mean: 0.0710805 lower: 0.0516263 upper: 0.0906615 passes: true - iteration: 28 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.0022 min_ess_bulk: 1825.64 min_ess_tail: 2250.06 min_ebfmi: 0.7551006503888925 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 830.5619490146637 gamma_size: truth: 0.084464395 mean: 0.0930949 lower: 0.0734677 upper: 0.112957 passes: true - iteration: 29 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00865 min_ess_bulk: 885.81 min_ess_tail: 837.283 min_ebfmi: 0.9309933262848792 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 30 seconds: 309.3898470401764 gamma_size: truth: 0.055921526 mean: 0.0557903 lower: 0.0367732 upper: 0.0744587 passes: true - iteration: 30 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00787 min_ess_bulk: 699.152 min_ess_tail: 950.509 min_ebfmi: 0.7989061364562774 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 478.5845561027527 gamma_size: truth: -0.16571274 mean: -0.166331 lower: -0.184225 upper: -0.148195 passes: true - iteration: 31 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00716 min_ess_bulk: 923.111 min_ess_tail: 1070.95 min_ebfmi: 0.7979989434407156 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 604.9338748455048 gamma_size: truth: 0.18951058 mean: 0.193505 lower: 0.174162 upper: 0.212657 passes: true - iteration: 32 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00532 min_ess_bulk: 626.238 min_ess_tail: 991.11 min_ebfmi: 0.7250477406213363 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 34 seconds: 455.95887780189514 gamma_size: truth: -0.026717161 mean: -0.0233902 lower: -0.0417741 upper: -0.00469581 passes: true - iteration: 33 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00284 min_ess_bulk: 1685.71 min_ess_tail: 1939.71 min_ebfmi: 0.7576903939117876 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 669.1695201396942 gamma_size: truth: -0.10929243 mean: -0.104976 lower: -0.122234 upper: -0.0875763 passes: true - iteration: 34 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.0063 min_ess_bulk: 987.707 min_ess_tail: 1040.02 min_ebfmi: 0.8412322142971667 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 505.8490607738495 gamma_size: truth: 0.20460792 mean: 0.180328 lower: 0.154346 upper: 0.208637 passes: true - iteration: 35 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00762 min_ess_bulk: 752.014 min_ess_tail: 921.247 min_ebfmi: 0.865415632940734 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 498.08612513542175 gamma_size: truth: 0.20859431 mean: 0.220384 lower: 0.200416 upper: 0.240955 passes: true - iteration: 36 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00683 min_ess_bulk: 736.676 min_ess_tail: 899.765 min_ebfmi: 0.7110344166853981 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 390.736341714859 gamma_size: truth: -0.0041148078 mean: -0.00822284 lower: -0.0290483 upper: 0.0137896 passes: true - iteration: 37 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00925 min_ess_bulk: 1042.25 min_ess_tail: 1133.99 min_ebfmi: 0.9266557756228425 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 23 seconds: 536.0271780490875 gamma_size: truth: 0.094291406 mean: 0.111154 lower: 0.0894765 upper: 0.133123 passes: true - iteration: 38 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00832 min_ess_bulk: 635.419 min_ess_tail: 631.679 min_ebfmi: 0.8685590945674827 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 379.273047208786 gamma_size: truth: -0.019318229 mean: -0.0233275 lower: -0.0399581 upper: -0.00685456 passes: true - iteration: 39 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00502 min_ess_bulk: 764.139 min_ess_tail: 1112.56 min_ebfmi: 0.7836388052198091 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 404.58894896507263 gamma_size: truth: 0.043316538 mean: 0.0265614 lower: 0.00692992 upper: 0.0468797 passes: true - iteration: 40 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00576 min_ess_bulk: 441.945 min_ess_tail: 742.351 min_ebfmi: 0.7027301397902856 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 394.8351459503174 gamma_size: truth: 0.10770218 mean: 0.112321 lower: 0.0937029 upper: 0.132201 passes: true passed: 40 coverage: gamma0: covered: 38 total: 40 coverage: 0.95 bias: -0.009426077499999968 rmse: 0.11002799643855309 mean_interval_width: 0.450985 sigma_cell: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.0009698555474999912 rmse: 0.07606816557931821 mean_interval_width: 0.20404548775000003 gamma_size: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: -0.0006856104875000051 rmse: 0.013595680237111201 mean_interval_width: 0.04141696225 gamma[1]: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: -0.030318505899999994 rmse: 0.20587925441663477 mean_interval_width: 0.584629974 gamma[2]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: -0.0444895636 rmse: 0.20372378278835687 mean_interval_width: 0.58180815 gamma[3]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.02981073405 rmse: 0.1990740888724104 mean_interval_width: 0.587729002 gamma[4]: covered: 39 total: 40 coverage: 0.975 bias: -0.03565454944999998 rmse: 0.1623656882592626 mean_interval_width: 0.57700006025 gamma[5]: covered: 39 total: 40 coverage: 0.975 bias: -0.007089926800000007 rmse: 0.1576538687166748 mean_interval_width: 0.576286631875 gamma[6]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.026040187469999997 rmse: 0.16490560463818177 mean_interval_width: 0.46193145500000005 gamma[7]: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: 0.006004817425000001 rmse: 0.15639234690061127 mean_interval_width: 0.46886981999999994 hiring: source_root: results/parameter_recovery/h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_hiring_recovery_pilot_500 last_launch_config: n_iterations: 40 n_mcmc_samples: 1000 n_mcmc_warmup: 1000 n_mcmc_chains: 4 adapt_delta: 0.95 max_treedepth: 12 J: 18 P: 7 M_total: 5040 sampling_schedules: - sampling: &id019 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) iterations: - 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 22 - 23 - 24 - 25 - 26 - 27 - 28 - 29 - 30 - 31 - 32 - 33 - 34 - 35 - 36 - 37 - 39 - 40 - sampling: &id020 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement iterations: - 3 - 12 - 17 - 21 - 38 iterations: - iteration: 1 sampling: *id019 max_rhat: 1.0056 min_ess_bulk: 1137.19 min_ess_tail: 1149.85 min_ebfmi: 0.8166589796559367 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 30 seconds: 658.2959396839142 gamma_size: truth: 0.27275904 mean: 0.27982 lower: 0.256189 upper: 0.304007 passes: true - iteration: 2 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00572 min_ess_bulk: 630.771 min_ess_tail: 1051.45 min_ebfmi: 0.8578115439119796 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 359.1180760860443 gamma_size: truth: 0.10712606 mean: 0.105449 lower: 0.0859999 upper: 0.125394 passes: true - iteration: 3 sampling: *id020 max_rhat: 1.00361 min_ess_bulk: 3094.94 min_ess_tail: 2227.86 min_ebfmi: 0.8466528351623622 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 1353.564363002777 gamma_size: truth: 0.0046246673 mean: 0.0103842 lower: -0.00900519 upper: 0.0302812 passes: true - iteration: 4 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00389 min_ess_bulk: 711.516 min_ess_tail: 1012.54 min_ebfmi: 0.7669883247524518 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 19 seconds: 474.00131821632385 gamma_size: truth: 0.039084492 mean: 0.0421639 lower: 0.0267353 upper: 0.0584298 passes: true - iteration: 5 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00735 min_ess_bulk: 1011.32 min_ess_tail: 1138.08 min_ebfmi: 0.9246363995498176 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 708.3914289474487 gamma_size: truth: -0.25411648 mean: -0.253002 lower: -0.271052 upper: -0.234085 passes: true - iteration: 6 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00568 min_ess_bulk: 754.973 min_ess_tail: 1133.81 min_ebfmi: 0.7940143044468069 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 428.2467749118805 gamma_size: truth: -0.2196768 mean: -0.219911 lower: -0.235576 upper: -0.2032 passes: true - iteration: 7 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00635 min_ess_bulk: 802.882 min_ess_tail: 943.161 min_ebfmi: 0.8015064035678777 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 30 seconds: 478.461385011673 gamma_size: truth: -0.47930959 mean: -0.511887 lower: -0.537986 upper: -0.486073 passes: true - iteration: 8 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00815 min_ess_bulk: 692.392 min_ess_tail: 877.509 min_ebfmi: 0.726703647235943 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 309.45402693748474 gamma_size: truth: 0.36777692 mean: 0.357996 lower: 0.335744 upper: 0.381189 passes: true - iteration: 9 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00735 min_ess_bulk: 1632.48 min_ess_tail: 946.69 min_ebfmi: 0.8865936925818075 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 743.0449049472809 gamma_size: truth: 0.21975668 mean: 0.227348 lower: 0.202783 upper: 0.252858 passes: true - iteration: 10 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00712 min_ess_bulk: 900.958 min_ess_tail: 1149.16 min_ebfmi: 0.8089046240627085 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 679.7637882232666 gamma_size: truth: -0.2972646 mean: -0.293489 lower: -0.312563 upper: -0.274814 passes: true - iteration: 11 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00671 min_ess_bulk: 854.111 min_ess_tail: 1087.27 min_ebfmi: 0.7421840320844953 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 749.4711441993713 gamma_size: truth: -0.069364757 mean: -0.0666723 lower: -0.0827745 upper: -0.0505922 passes: true - iteration: 12 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.004 min_ess_bulk: 1004.72 min_ess_tail: 1268.15 min_ebfmi: 0.8686152195747067 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 472.16517519950867 gamma_size: truth: 0.26565668 mean: 0.272168 lower: 0.250882 upper: 0.293923 passes: true - iteration: 13 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00503 min_ess_bulk: 488.713 min_ess_tail: 519.451 min_ebfmi: 0.7449184574590634 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 426.66935086250305 gamma_size: truth: -0.27449959 mean: -0.292114 lower: -0.309574 upper: -0.274056 passes: true - iteration: 14 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00679 min_ess_bulk: 692.556 min_ess_tail: 788.763 min_ebfmi: 0.7911384723459054 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 417.259978055954 gamma_size: truth: -0.061994742 mean: -0.0556351 lower: -0.0726059 upper: -0.0385301 passes: true - iteration: 15 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00589 min_ess_bulk: 638.327 min_ess_tail: 1060.15 min_ebfmi: 0.6989896598851085 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 537.5454051494598 gamma_size: truth: 0.045931032 mean: 0.0499231 lower: 0.0337677 upper: 0.0668639 passes: true - iteration: 16 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00683 min_ess_bulk: 627.574 min_ess_tail: 950.02 min_ebfmi: 0.786276002265637 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 379.1012580394745 gamma_size: truth: 0.10447698 mean: 0.118071 lower: 0.0985037 upper: 0.137856 passes: true - iteration: 17 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00341 min_ess_bulk: 1374.78 min_ess_tail: 1552.3 min_ebfmi: 0.8542223263996247 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 19 seconds: 544.3246052265167 gamma_size: truth: 0.019044953 mean: 0.0219979 lower: 0.0047294 upper: 0.0394964 passes: true - iteration: 18 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00563 min_ess_bulk: 493.95 min_ess_tail: 939.152 min_ebfmi: 0.7795889741289572 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 469.47749304771423 gamma_size: truth: -0.029560771 mean: -0.0430953 lower: -0.0636134 upper: -0.0229807 passes: true - iteration: 19 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00686 min_ess_bulk: 838.062 min_ess_tail: 932.785 min_ebfmi: 0.955467406512972 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 361.70799684524536 gamma_size: truth: 0.41979101 mean: 0.43482 lower: 0.408904 upper: 0.459592 passes: true - iteration: 20 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00611 min_ess_bulk: 772.751 min_ess_tail: 1035.26 min_ebfmi: 0.8038112249116471 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 610.7046120166779 gamma_size: truth: -0.23822585 mean: -0.243011 lower: -0.2597 upper: -0.226806 passes: true - iteration: 21 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00476 min_ess_bulk: 1140.07 min_ess_tail: 1527.7 min_ebfmi: 0.8122700894754094 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 34 seconds: 470.4223630428314 gamma_size: truth: -0.45883301 mean: -0.45541 lower: -0.480854 upper: -0.430289 passes: true - iteration: 22 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00729 min_ess_bulk: 701.325 min_ess_tail: 1129.49 min_ebfmi: 0.8624771020434838 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 40 seconds: 314.7412941455841 gamma_size: truth: -0.40489935 mean: -0.432933 lower: -0.465281 upper: -0.401559 passes: true - iteration: 23 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00485 min_ess_bulk: 1014.35 min_ess_tail: 1074.34 min_ebfmi: 0.8642299910454925 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 36 seconds: 639.9756920337677 gamma_size: truth: -0.09807516 mean: -0.105004 lower: -0.121875 upper: -0.0879794 passes: true - iteration: 24 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00847 min_ess_bulk: 641.961 min_ess_tail: 1092.37 min_ebfmi: 0.763105535318229 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 37 seconds: 610.1906769275665 gamma_size: truth: -0.31720981 mean: -0.269624 lower: -0.291975 upper: -0.248395 passes: true - iteration: 25 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00532 min_ess_bulk: 831.727 min_ess_tail: 1004.42 min_ebfmi: 0.7404319741805918 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 392.9686119556427 gamma_size: truth: 0.32293216 mean: 0.311412 lower: 0.290822 upper: 0.333285 passes: true - iteration: 26 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00756 min_ess_bulk: 411.571 min_ess_tail: 409.311 min_ebfmi: 0.7435163364510785 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 19 seconds: 383.42933201789856 gamma_size: truth: -0.38008494 mean: -0.390267 lower: -0.411274 upper: -0.368986 passes: true - iteration: 27 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00753 min_ess_bulk: 518.401 min_ess_tail: 678.772 min_ebfmi: 0.8663366366650526 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 17 seconds: 335.0148878097534 gamma_size: truth: 0.064028038 mean: 0.0602132 lower: 0.0425405 upper: 0.0781268 passes: true - iteration: 28 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.0055 min_ess_bulk: 789.974 min_ess_tail: 834.392 min_ebfmi: 0.8813438536662139 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 686.6293601989746 gamma_size: truth: 0.084464395 mean: 0.0766266 lower: 0.0586788 upper: 0.0950926 passes: true - iteration: 29 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00868 min_ess_bulk: 765.565 min_ess_tail: 639.832 min_ebfmi: 0.8956971672158451 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 349.89835500717163 gamma_size: truth: 0.055921526 mean: 0.0351595 lower: 0.017856 upper: 0.0537631 passes: true - iteration: 30 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00503 min_ess_bulk: 797.51 min_ess_tail: 954.835 min_ebfmi: 0.7965174540092581 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 498.3009989261627 gamma_size: truth: -0.16571274 mean: -0.181869 lower: -0.200383 upper: -0.163853 passes: true - iteration: 31 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.0075 min_ess_bulk: 793.6 min_ess_tail: 1142.8 min_ebfmi: 0.8507112597446276 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 520.420000076294 gamma_size: truth: 0.18951058 mean: 0.18996 lower: 0.171871 upper: 0.208776 passes: true - iteration: 32 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00422 min_ess_bulk: 563.257 min_ess_tail: 742.475 min_ebfmi: 0.8378800519403833 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 382.54082894325256 gamma_size: truth: -0.026717161 mean: -0.0193993 lower: -0.0376834 upper: -0.000380676 passes: true - iteration: 33 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00476 min_ess_bulk: 723.022 min_ess_tail: 1077.2 min_ebfmi: 0.7602668332068067 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 599.1288189888 gamma_size: truth: -0.10929243 mean: -0.111775 lower: -0.12798 upper: -0.095316 passes: true - iteration: 34 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00501 min_ess_bulk: 653.169 min_ess_tail: 1040.95 min_ebfmi: 0.7217958925524984 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 485.5446560382843 gamma_size: truth: 0.20460792 mean: 0.184825 lower: 0.158581 upper: 0.210868 passes: true - iteration: 35 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00761 min_ess_bulk: 735.441 min_ess_tail: 959.798 min_ebfmi: 0.7664623540495465 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 32 seconds: 609.2986857891083 gamma_size: truth: 0.20859431 mean: 0.214256 lower: 0.194083 upper: 0.234949 passes: true - iteration: 36 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00809 min_ess_bulk: 710.292 min_ess_tail: 982.623 min_ebfmi: 0.7791459344521848 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 406.4036169052124 gamma_size: truth: -0.0041148078 mean: -0.0186688 lower: -0.041628 upper: 0.00518149 passes: true - iteration: 37 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00939 min_ess_bulk: 1007.61 min_ess_tail: 1051.74 min_ebfmi: 0.8857658459541737 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 604.6014001369476 gamma_size: truth: 0.094291406 mean: 0.0847839 lower: 0.0655128 upper: 0.10394 passes: true - iteration: 38 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00342 min_ess_bulk: 1516.69 min_ess_tail: 1804.58 min_ebfmi: 0.9066322406772896 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 481.17180585861206 gamma_size: truth: -0.019318229 mean: -0.0211324 lower: -0.0365475 upper: -0.00553659 passes: true - iteration: 39 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00557 min_ess_bulk: 629.903 min_ess_tail: 909.456 min_ebfmi: 0.744488072006798 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 33 seconds: 519.3002889156342 gamma_size: truth: 0.043316538 mean: 0.029176 lower: 0.0111207 upper: 0.0473906 passes: true - iteration: 40 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00722 min_ess_bulk: 461.001 min_ess_tail: 755.835 min_ebfmi: 0.7050512287208843 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 26 seconds: 401.4095048904419 gamma_size: truth: 0.10770218 mean: 0.103662 lower: 0.0838394 upper: 0.123961 passes: true passed: 40 coverage: gamma0: covered: 38 total: 40 coverage: 0.95 bias: -0.01477732750000001 rmse: 0.10903822561621336 mean_interval_width: 0.44948899999999997 sigma_cell: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.0019196380474999935 rmse: 0.07499597634496698 mean_interval_width: 0.20603104175000003 gamma_size: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: -0.0026952662375000014 rmse: 0.013681025607211496 mean_interval_width: 0.040064497850000005 gamma[1]: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: -0.0284923489 rmse: 0.20981200522775764 mean_interval_width: 0.582613039 gamma[2]: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: -0.04239694835 rmse: 0.20249001974972936 mean_interval_width: 0.5763784765000001 gamma[3]: covered: 33 total: 40 coverage: 0.825 bias: 0.04552833905 rmse: 0.20086619510137863 mean_interval_width: 0.5915297429999999 gamma[4]: covered: 38 total: 40 coverage: 0.95 bias: -0.02685494945 rmse: 0.1648010577298007 mean_interval_width: 0.5736303625 gamma[5]: covered: 38 total: 40 coverage: 0.95 bias: 0.0055280107 rmse: 0.16103917822373373 mean_interval_width: 0.57914041925 gamma[6]: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: 0.023264773719999996 rmse: 0.15954458517006795 mean_interval_width: 0.45738777524999996 gamma[7]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.01589208865 rmse: 0.1613033942097591 mean_interval_width: 0.45928839075 matched_rq5: source_root: results/parameter_recovery/h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_matched_rq5_recovery last_launch_config: n_iterations: 40 n_mcmc_samples: 1000 n_mcmc_warmup: 1000 n_mcmc_chains: 4 adapt_delta: 0.95 max_treedepth: 12 J: 36 P: 13 M_total: 2880 sampling_schedules: - sampling: &id021 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) iterations: - 1 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 15 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 - 23 - 24 - 25 - 27 - 28 - 29 - 30 - 31 - 32 - 33 - 34 - 35 - 36 - 37 - 39 - 40 - sampling: &id022 status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement iterations: - 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 13 - 14 - 16 - 17 - 26 - 38 iterations: - iteration: 1 sampling: *id021 max_rhat: 1.00608 min_ess_bulk: 1045.52 min_ess_tail: 1092.55 min_ebfmi: 0.7141489313050632 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 28 seconds: 192.89831590652466 gamma_size: truth: 0.27275904 mean: 0.269386 lower: 0.237011 upper: 0.302753 passes: true - iteration: 2 sampling: *id022 max_rhat: 1.0041 min_ess_bulk: 969.683 min_ess_tail: 1092.82 min_ebfmi: 0.7165466735025664 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 181.19470882415771 gamma_size: truth: 0.10712606 mean: 0.126896 lower: 0.0950327 upper: 0.158383 passes: true - iteration: 3 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00683 min_ess_bulk: 1262.78 min_ess_tail: 1084.31 min_ebfmi: 0.8561960662006033 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 36 seconds: 213.84187388420105 gamma_size: truth: 0.0046246673 mean: 0.0316393 lower: 0.00650659 upper: 0.0572066 passes: true - iteration: 4 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00327 min_ess_bulk: 933.493 min_ess_tail: 1446.33 min_ebfmi: 0.7974532184934022 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 23 seconds: 195.00152015686035 gamma_size: truth: 0.039084492 mean: 0.0464732 lower: 0.0242798 upper: 0.0693805 passes: true - iteration: 5 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00514 min_ess_bulk: 726.509 min_ess_tail: 948.857 min_ebfmi: 0.7627973198742848 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 195.66829800605774 gamma_size: truth: -0.25411648 mean: -0.292253 lower: -0.316773 upper: -0.267704 passes: true - iteration: 6 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00361 min_ess_bulk: 1281.81 min_ess_tail: 1749.99 min_ebfmi: 0.8427525582911013 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 213.6782968044281 gamma_size: truth: -0.2196768 mean: -0.193543 lower: -0.215488 upper: -0.171931 passes: true - iteration: 7 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00682 min_ess_bulk: 846.824 min_ess_tail: 1132.29 min_ebfmi: 0.7960907701642933 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 29 seconds: 167.89113688468933 gamma_size: truth: -0.47930959 mean: -0.493582 lower: -0.527179 upper: -0.460711 passes: true - iteration: 8 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00321 min_ess_bulk: 1095.22 min_ess_tail: 1405.66 min_ebfmi: 0.8840216332341563 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 19 seconds: 210.13537096977234 gamma_size: truth: 0.36777692 mean: 0.37773 lower: 0.341476 upper: 0.413544 passes: true - iteration: 9 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00701 min_ess_bulk: 1287.81 min_ess_tail: 1000.32 min_ebfmi: 0.8764064569167621 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 44 seconds: 264.85947704315186 gamma_size: truth: 0.21975668 mean: 0.201527 lower: 0.173066 upper: 0.230313 passes: true - iteration: 10 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00682 min_ess_bulk: 923.266 min_ess_tail: 1008.15 min_ebfmi: 0.772365065550961 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 37 seconds: 158.6766381263733 gamma_size: truth: -0.2972646 mean: -0.284335 lower: -0.314579 upper: -0.255276 passes: true - iteration: 11 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00791 min_ess_bulk: 721.662 min_ess_tail: 1128.23 min_ebfmi: 0.7575647165541702 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 166.79832768440247 gamma_size: truth: -0.069364757 mean: -0.0617549 lower: -0.0881053 upper: -0.035282 passes: true - iteration: 12 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00727 min_ess_bulk: 746.037 min_ess_tail: 942.302 min_ebfmi: 0.7457008073047877 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 34 seconds: 119.79128432273865 gamma_size: truth: 0.26565668 mean: 0.280336 lower: 0.251525 upper: 0.310364 passes: true - iteration: 13 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00437 min_ess_bulk: 748.401 min_ess_tail: 1112.53 min_ebfmi: 0.7434641359098281 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 238.79604196548462 gamma_size: truth: -0.27449959 mean: -0.276875 lower: -0.302476 upper: -0.251748 passes: true - iteration: 14 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00356 min_ess_bulk: 901.976 min_ess_tail: 923.65 min_ebfmi: 0.830054599322934 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 236.9551420211792 gamma_size: truth: -0.061994742 mean: -0.0584685 lower: -0.0797507 upper: -0.0363225 passes: true - iteration: 15 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00694 min_ess_bulk: 1083.66 min_ess_tail: 1118.96 min_ebfmi: 0.7852480692332222 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 196.06402611732483 gamma_size: truth: 0.045931032 mean: 0.0485443 lower: 0.0222895 upper: 0.074395 passes: true - iteration: 16 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00474 min_ess_bulk: 1155.45 min_ess_tail: 1611.69 min_ebfmi: 0.8184022073653023 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 25 seconds: 221.00992059707642 gamma_size: truth: 0.10447698 mean: 0.130633 lower: 0.102828 upper: 0.159129 passes: true - iteration: 17 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00762 min_ess_bulk: 787.644 min_ess_tail: 984.758 min_ebfmi: 0.7238168746596477 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 16 seconds: 229.72778964042664 gamma_size: truth: 0.019044953 mean: 0.0364242 lower: 0.0126496 upper: 0.0605482 passes: true - iteration: 18 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.0097 min_ess_bulk: 509.851 min_ess_tail: 562.348 min_ebfmi: 0.6568842245868928 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 180.54394793510437 gamma_size: truth: -0.029560771 mean: -0.0596328 lower: -0.0845322 upper: -0.0343896 passes: true - iteration: 19 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00996 min_ess_bulk: 987.211 min_ess_tail: 1013.74 min_ebfmi: 0.8824964418854366 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 144.51589393615723 gamma_size: truth: 0.41979101 mean: 0.437933 lower: 0.402896 upper: 0.474136 passes: true - iteration: 20 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00709 min_ess_bulk: 557.507 min_ess_tail: 826.857 min_ebfmi: 0.7519353848281501 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 24 seconds: 159.39870500564575 gamma_size: truth: -0.23822585 mean: -0.264531 lower: -0.287681 upper: -0.241868 passes: true - iteration: 21 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00989 min_ess_bulk: 941.729 min_ess_tail: 941.461 min_ebfmi: 0.8446509729525278 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 145.53844499588013 gamma_size: truth: -0.45883301 mean: -0.471764 lower: -0.509983 upper: -0.435234 passes: true - iteration: 22 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00776 min_ess_bulk: 687.835 min_ess_tail: 964.714 min_ebfmi: 0.9068614819037903 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 18 seconds: 121.21054482460022 gamma_size: truth: -0.40489935 mean: -0.402004 lower: -0.439933 upper: -0.364764 passes: true - iteration: 23 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00789 min_ess_bulk: 820.945 min_ess_tail: 1046.44 min_ebfmi: 0.7154678951869687 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 42 seconds: 126.50658202171326 gamma_size: truth: -0.09807516 mean: -0.097373 lower: -0.122945 upper: -0.0733538 passes: true - iteration: 24 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00543 min_ess_bulk: 800.95 min_ess_tail: 1074.33 min_ebfmi: 0.675327709031745 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 188.70431900024414 gamma_size: truth: -0.31720981 mean: -0.308846 lower: -0.33823 upper: -0.280484 passes: true - iteration: 25 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00768 min_ess_bulk: 1036.77 min_ess_tail: 1100.6 min_ebfmi: 0.8087410215086053 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 9 seconds: 183.9173722267151 gamma_size: truth: 0.32293216 mean: 0.321972 lower: 0.292274 upper: 0.353041 passes: true - iteration: 26 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.0036 min_ess_bulk: 979.351 min_ess_tail: 1695.49 min_ebfmi: 0.8248936067761297 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 230.20651698112488 gamma_size: truth: -0.38008494 mean: -0.392213 lower: -0.421499 upper: -0.363344 passes: true - iteration: 27 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00588 min_ess_bulk: 678.712 min_ess_tail: 1011.38 min_ebfmi: 0.9355333571346418 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 154.02716517448425 gamma_size: truth: 0.064028038 mean: 0.0638005 lower: 0.0416162 upper: 0.0868104 passes: true - iteration: 28 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00592 min_ess_bulk: 874.611 min_ess_tail: 1158.98 min_ebfmi: 0.7594492954168653 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 27 seconds: 223.62704825401306 gamma_size: truth: 0.084464395 mean: 0.126729 lower: 0.101407 upper: 0.151787 passes: true - iteration: 29 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00648 min_ess_bulk: 529.161 min_ess_tail: 750.549 min_ebfmi: 0.7998773788283213 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 14 seconds: 138.06231117248535 gamma_size: truth: 0.055921526 mean: 0.0701486 lower: 0.045016 upper: 0.0963321 passes: true - iteration: 30 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00604 min_ess_bulk: 675.163 min_ess_tail: 857.007 min_ebfmi: 0.7232609664476558 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 31 seconds: 136.1918318271637 gamma_size: truth: -0.16571274 mean: -0.1457 lower: -0.16926 upper: -0.122728 passes: true - iteration: 31 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00627 min_ess_bulk: 602.869 min_ess_tail: 923.423 min_ebfmi: 0.803195877676517 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 198.2963650226593 gamma_size: truth: 0.18951058 mean: 0.183571 lower: 0.159122 upper: 0.20756 passes: true - iteration: 32 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00913 min_ess_bulk: 1102.76 min_ess_tail: 1104.12 min_ebfmi: 0.8954215652450402 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 17 seconds: 152.80222415924072 gamma_size: truth: -0.026717161 mean: -0.0397661 lower: -0.0652935 upper: -0.0131981 passes: true - iteration: 33 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00794 min_ess_bulk: 819.873 min_ess_tail: 996.357 min_ebfmi: 0.7561696577588894 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 230.8708531856537 gamma_size: truth: -0.10929243 mean: -0.0883387 lower: -0.112876 upper: -0.0633132 passes: true - iteration: 34 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00694 min_ess_bulk: 1072.7 min_ess_tail: 978.631 min_ebfmi: 0.804329751642143 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 18 seconds: 129.3087191581726 gamma_size: truth: 0.20460792 mean: 0.215679 lower: 0.172191 upper: 0.26021 passes: true - iteration: 35 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00632 min_ess_bulk: 754.346 min_ess_tail: 969.244 min_ebfmi: 0.7527817033040944 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 21 seconds: 160.55501699447632 gamma_size: truth: 0.20859431 mean: 0.201983 lower: 0.174412 upper: 0.229205 passes: true - iteration: 36 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00695 min_ess_bulk: 586.578 min_ess_tail: 1050.22 min_ebfmi: 0.7973227382493531 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 35 seconds: 120.12247610092163 gamma_size: truth: -0.0041148078 mean: 0.00328139 lower: -0.0270953 upper: 0.0349259 passes: true - iteration: 37 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.0064 min_ess_bulk: 715.089 min_ess_tail: 1144.77 min_ebfmi: 0.7052147800596493 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 147.4216639995575 gamma_size: truth: 0.094291406 mean: 0.0848283 lower: 0.0596443 upper: 0.110786 passes: true - iteration: 38 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 1000 num_samples: 1000 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 previous_schedules: - status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: longer replacement max_rhat: 1.00392 min_ess_bulk: 987.833 min_ess_tail: 1655.12 min_ebfmi: 0.823647473353699 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 22 seconds: 219.2844910621643 gamma_size: truth: -0.019318229 mean: -0.0152507 lower: -0.0383828 upper: 0.00822481 passes: true - iteration: 39 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00522 min_ess_bulk: 1013.88 min_ess_tail: 1173.17 min_ebfmi: 0.7493034606190014 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 20 seconds: 208.40771412849426 gamma_size: truth: 0.043316538 mean: 0.0649825 lower: 0.0400138 upper: 0.0897058 passes: true - iteration: 40 sampling: status: available model: h_m01_size_assessment_anchored_model num_warmup: 500 num_samples: 500 delta: 0.95 max_depth: 12 thin: 1 n_chains: 4 run_role: original (no superseded iteration archive) max_rhat: 1.00644 min_ess_bulk: 442.623 min_ess_tail: 809.42 min_ebfmi: 0.6878701213501132 divergences: 0 treedepth_saturated_share: 0.0 nonfinite_proposals_total: 38 seconds: 140.08039617538452 gamma_size: truth: 0.10770218 mean: 0.0962829 lower: 0.0736873 upper: 0.119001 passes: true passed: 40 coverage: gamma0: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: -0.06918307749999998 rmse: 0.16324574207167625 mean_interval_width: 0.481904 sigma_cell: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: 0.014247940547499999 rmse: 0.06817137263405429 mean_interval_width: 0.2078325715 gamma_size: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.003535568512499998 rmse: 0.017096022102450526 mean_interval_width: 0.055480203000000006 gamma[1]: covered: 35 total: 40 coverage: 0.875 bias: 0.05604639359999999 rmse: 0.24626195688955602 mean_interval_width: 0.6618075585000001 gamma[2]: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: 0.0830730164 rmse: 0.19033286462158516 mean_interval_width: 0.6587056874999999 gamma[3]: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: 0.06620212905 rmse: 0.19764006383697702 mean_interval_width: 0.657847905 gamma[4]: covered: 39 total: 40 coverage: 0.975 bias: 0.051113852300000005 rmse: 0.18113727721724415 mean_interval_width: 0.65252082 gamma[5]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.06655842069999998 rmse: 0.22913328660292137 mean_interval_width: 0.65192904575 gamma[6]: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: 0.048977012470000005 rmse: 0.1518739729225237 mean_interval_width: 0.4296064395 gamma[7]: covered: 39 total: 40 coverage: 0.975 bias: -0.002137250075000005 rmse: 0.09728109178013841 mean_interval_width: 0.43310322 gamma[8]: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.041388548875 rmse: 0.18196215603242835 mean_interval_width: 0.5430290785 gamma[9]: covered: 35 total: 40 coverage: 0.875 bias: -0.059064108905 rmse: 0.24306663400105605 mean_interval_width: 0.8543811625 gamma[10]: covered: 35 total: 40 coverage: 0.875 bias: -0.07996244975 rmse: 0.26684622595960367 mean_interval_width: 0.851445125 gamma[11]: covered: 39 total: 40 coverage: 0.975 bias: -0.014645792265000002 rmse: 0.22285689304105247 mean_interval_width: 0.8703369375 gamma[12]: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: -0.022725352499999983 rmse: 0.2886776758292295 mean_interval_width: 0.8583030380000001 gamma[13]: covered: 35 total: 40 coverage: 0.875 bias: -0.061282596972500006 rmse: 0.31398996516780836 mean_interval_width: 0.85611104 rq5_gpt_4o_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 34 total: 40 coverage: 0.85 bias: 0.041388725670052195 rmse: 0.18196220116083606 mean_interval_width: 0.5430289701588749 rq5_gpt_4o_mini_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: -0.01767540974190762 rmse: 0.22843647889155722 mean_interval_width: 0.787661312926 rq5_o3_mini_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 35 total: 40 coverage: 0.875 bias: -0.03857367968593285 rmse: 0.24814685422938318 mean_interval_width: 0.776571460124375 rq5_claude_sonnet_4_5_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 38 total: 40 coverage: 0.95 bias: 0.026742994067183373 rmse: 0.19294407115626405 mean_interval_width: 0.817361737149 rq5_claude_haiku_4_5_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 37 total: 40 coverage: 0.925 bias: 0.018663298825958023 rmse: 0.25727690289441263 mean_interval_width: 0.7838954804103249 rq5_claude_sonnet_4_5_thinking_hiring_minus_procurement: covered: 36 total: 40 coverage: 0.9 bias: -0.019893826327026336 rmse: 0.2466352514085995 mean_interval_width: 0.7914662467161712 scientific_sources: - path: models/h_m01_size_assessment_anchored.stan stage_equality: current equals frozen staged source - path: applications/seu_sensitivity_study/data_preparation.py stage_equality: current equals frozen staged source - path: applications/seu_sensitivity_study/PREREGISTRATION.md stage_equality: current equals frozen staged source limitations: - Staging is not evidence of provider submission, completed choices, or spending authorization. - Recovery is simulation evidence under the fitted model, not empirical production estimates or formal SBC. - Coverage is recomputed from current per-iteration 5%/95% summaries and true parameters, including the latest venture iteration 16; historical E4 coverage tables may predate that rerun. - Recovery schedules are read from per-iteration chain headers, including archived schedules where available; last_launch_config is not evidence of earlier settings. Missing headers are explicitly unavailable. - Scientific source provenance covers the frozen Stan likelihood, data preparation, and preregistration including embedded amendments. Chain provenance hashes only initial CSV headers, not posterior draw bytes. - Assessed eta gaps use model-specific neutral probabilities and utilities (0, 0.5, 1); saved embedding-axis gate gaps are different quantities. - The OpenAI flagship-minus-small contrast is the exact negative of gpt-4o-mini minus gpt-4o, retained in the declared family, not independent evidence. - Matched procurement and hiring stimuli share merit keys; task-specific text and assessments need not be identical. - No raw provider responses, hidden thinking blocks, credentials, job identifiers, chain files, or absolute machine paths are exported. sources: - path: applications/seu_sensitivity_study/PREREGISTRATION.md sha256: 98d10ce416b6678fc03eec2d5cc300d72df805e827c0eb3b503d280bffbf1a22 - path: applications/seu_sensitivity_study/__init__.py sha256: fad872606d2716b025c3c5cc944d312d2241ee05b356f1d2f788d7a4ce7dae0d - path: applications/seu_sensitivity_study/config.py sha256: 42cc81050cd30a1be8fc5fa054aa6ff649203a8c3857d689204f2644ddc5563a - 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